Good Morning Traders. Today is the day. The state of US-Iran negotiations is in flux this morning, with Pakistan's Army Chief Asim Munir traveling to Tehran today carrying the latest US message, and both sides still at odds over the two most critical issues — control of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's right to enrich uranium. (Investing.com) But here is what makes this morning different from every other morning this week: Secretary of State Rubio told the Financial Times there are "some good signs" in talks, and stocks rose on the comment while oil eased. (FRED) Iran said the latest US proposal "reduced the gaps to some extent." That is the most constructive language from Tehran since the war began. Markets are threading the needle — green equities, oil bouncing back to $98, VIX holding above 17, XLE slightly red. The tape is cautiously optimistic but not euphoric. It is waiting for Tehran's answer. So is the rest of the world. Be very careful out there and Happy Trading.

Market Snapshot

Oil & Commodities

WTI (USOIL): 98.44 (+0.45 / +0.46%)

Brent (UKOIL): 105.36 (+0.45 / +0.43%)

Note: Oil bouncing back after yesterday's sharp drop below $98. The market is re-establishing a war premium floor ahead of Iran's expected response today. Conflicting signals overnight whipsawed markets, though moves were largely subdued as investors awaited more clarity. (EBC Financial Group)

Indexes

DXY: 99.293 (+0.102 / +0.10%)

SPX500: 7,466.8 (+20.4 / +0.27%)

US30: 50,444.3 (+123.8 / +0.25%)

NAS100: 29,475.4 (+84.8 / +0.29%)

VIX: 17.02 (+0.27 / +1.61%)

FX

USD/JPY: 159.11 (+0.128 / +0.08%)

EUR/USD: 1.1604 (-0.00129 / -0.11%)

GBP/USD: 1.3426 (-0.00035 / -0.03%)

USD/CAD: 1.3791 (+0.00133 / +0.10%)

AUD/USD: 0.7130 (-0.00184 / -0.26%)

ETFs

QQQ: 714.51 (+1.36 / +0.19%) | Pre-mkt: 717.12 (+2.61 / +0.37%)

SPY: 742.72 (+1.47 / +0.20%) | Pre-mkt: 744.97 (+2.25 / +0.30%)

IWM: 282.49 (+2.62 / +0.94%) | Pre-mkt: 283.05 (+0.56 / +0.20%)

XLE: 59.13 (-0.67 / -1.12%) | Pre-mkt: 59.27 (+0.14 / +0.24%)

Treasury Yields

US02Y: 4.08% (-0.00 / -0.02%)

US10Y: 4.56% (-0.02 / -0.35%)

10Y–2Y Spread: +0.48%

Overnight Drivers

Pakistan Army Chief Traveling to Tehran Today (RFE/RL — Breaking): Pakistan's Army Chief Asim Munir is traveling to Tehran today carrying a fresh message from Washington. Iran said the latest US proposal "reduced the gaps to some extent" — the most constructive language from Tehran since the war began 84 days ago. The two sides remain at odds over Iran's uranium stockpile, with Trump insisting "we will get it" and Iran's Supreme Leader ordering that near-weapons-grade uranium must not be sent abroad. (Investing.com)

Rubio: "Some Good Signs" — But Major Issues Remain (Bloomberg/Reuters): Stocks rose after Rubio said there had been "some good signs" in talks. However he also said any deal involving Iran imposing a toll system in the Strait would be "unacceptable," and Iran's Supreme Leader ordered that the country's near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad. The conflicting messages whipsawed markets overnight. (FRED) Two dealbreakers — uranium transfer and Strait control — remain fully unresolved.

Iran Still Pursuing Strait Toll System (RFE/RL): Rubio stated a diplomatic agreement would be "unfeasible" if Tehran continued pursuing the implementation of a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz. (Investing.com) Iran is simultaneously negotiating a peace deal and cementing its structural control of the world's most important energy chokepoint. These two tracks are incompatible — and the market knows it.

Dollar Near Six-Week High on Uncertainty (CNBC): The dollar held near a six-week top following a volatile overnight session on conflicting signals over a US-Iran peace deal. DXY hit 99.515 in the previous session — its highest since April 7 — as mixed messages kept traders in a holding pattern ahead of Iran's expected response. (EBC Financial Group)

Polymarket Odds Signal Skepticism (Polymarket): The "May 22 deal" probability fell from 7% to 4% earlier this week on the back of stalled diplomacy and military incidents. The market for a June 30 deal currently sits at 43% — reflecting genuine hope but far from conviction. (TRADING ECONOMICS) Prediction markets are telling you the same thing the VIX is — cautious optimism, not confidence.

Macro Context

Rates — Stable but Watching: 10Y at 4.56% (-0.35%) continues its gradual easing from last week's cycle highs. The spread tightening to +0.48% is constructive. The yield relief over the past three sessions is what is keeping QQQ and SPY in positive territory. A deal confirmation today would send the 10Y meaningfully lower — potentially toward 4.30–4.40% — which would be the single biggest QQQ catalyst possible.

Energy — The $98–$100 Range Is the Battlefield: WTI bouncing back to $98.44 after yesterday's drop below $98 tells you the market is not ready to fully price out the war premium without a confirmed deal. Tehran is in talks with Oman about setting up a permanent toll system to formalize its control of the Strait (FRED) — a development that, if implemented, would mean even a "peace deal" doesn't fully restore pre-war oil price levels. The structural floor for oil has risen permanently unless the Strait Authority concept is abandoned entirely.

VIX — Ticking Up Despite Green Futures: VIX at 17.02 (+1.61%) rising while QQQ and SPY are green pre-market is a mild warning signal. It means options traders are buying protection even as equity investors are adding exposure. That divergence reflects exactly what this morning is — a high-stakes binary event where both outcomes are being priced simultaneously.

Trade Implications

USD/JPY

Bias: Extreme Caution — MoF Territory

Flow: Creeping higher to 159.11 (+0.08%). The pair remains deep in MoF intervention territory with DXY near six-week highs.

Zones: Support: 158.50–158.80 | Resistance: 159.50–160.00

Execution: The 160.00 level is the next major psychological target and the most likely MoF trigger point. Do not hold aggressive longs above 159.50 without tight stops. A confirmed peace deal sends this pair sharply lower as USD safe-haven demand collapses. A breakdown in talks spikes it toward 160.00 and directly into intervention territory.

EUR/USD

Bias: Neutral — Deal Dependent

Flow: Barely lower at 1.1604 (-0.11%). EUR is consolidating near multi-week lows ahead of Iran's response.

Zones: Support: 1.1580–1.1600 | Resistance: 1.1640–1.1660

Execution: EUR is the clearest peace-trade beneficiary in FX — European energy costs collapse on a Strait reopening. A confirmed deal sends EUR sharply higher toward 1.1700–1.1750. A breakdown keeps it pinned below 1.1600. This is a binary setup — size for the event risk.

GBP/USD

Bias: Neutral — Stabilizing

Flow: Barely changed at 1.3426 (-0.03%). Sterling is set to gain 0.8% for the week despite having fallen more than 2% the previous week due to political turmoil in Britain. (EBC Financial Group) GBP is finding its footing.

Zones: Support: 1.3390–1.3410 | Resistance: 1.3460–1.3490

Execution: GBP's weekly recovery despite domestic political noise is a mild positive. A peace deal accelerates the recovery toward 1.3500+. A breakdown in talks pulls it back toward 1.3350. Hold above 1.3390 to keep the bullish weekly structure intact.

USD/CAD

Bias: Neutral — Coiled

Flow: Slightly higher at 1.3791 (+0.10%). The pair is holding near its highest levels of this cycle.

Zones: Support: 1.3750–1.3770 | Resistance: 1.3820–1.3850

Execution: Today's Iran response is the catalyst. A deal — USD weakens, oil drops but risk-on lifts CAD — pair moves toward 1.3650. A breakdown — USD strengthens, oil spikes, but risk-off also hurts CAD — pair could spike briefly toward 1.3850 before finding direction. This pair is genuinely difficult to trade today without clarity on the deal.

AUD/USD

Bias: Bearish Near-Term — Peace Trade Not Fully Materializing

Flow: Slipping to 0.7130 (-0.26%). AUD is the one currency that has consistently failed to fully participate in the peace trade rallies this week.

Zones: Support: 0.7100–0.7120 | Resistance: 0.7160–0.7180

Execution: AUD's persistent weakness despite green equities is a warning signal. The 0.7100 level must hold or the pair tests 0.7050. A confirmed deal is the only catalyst that convincingly breaks AUD higher. Until then — cautious, tight stops on any long positions.

QQQ

Bias: Bullish — Pre-Market Extending Gains

Flow: Closed at 714.51 (+0.19%) and pre-market adding to 717.12 (+0.37%). QQQ is quietly building toward the 718–720 resistance zone.

Zones: Support: 711–714 | Resistance: 718–722

Execution: A clean break above 718 on today's open — particularly on a positive Iran headline — targets 722–725. The yield easing and peace optimism combination is the strongest fundamental setup QQQ has had in two weeks. A deal today could be the catalyst for a sustained breakout above 720. TQQQ holders — this is the moment you sized for. Manage stops and have a clear exit plan.

SPY

Bias: Bullish

Flow: Closed at 742.72 (+0.20%) with pre-market adding to 744.97 (+0.30%). The index is back near all-time highs.

Zones: Support: 739–742 | Resistance: 746–750

Execution: SPY pre-market 744.97 is within striking distance of the 746–750 resistance zone. A confirmed deal today breaks through that range and opens the door to 750+. The Dow above 50,400 and IWM continuing higher confirms the breadth is genuine. Hold longs with a stop below 739.

IWM

Bias: Strongly Bullish — Continuing to Lead

Flow: Closed at 282.49 (+0.94%) and pre-market pushing toward 283.05 (+0.20%). IWM has now recovered nearly all of last week's losses.

Zones: Support: 279–281 | Resistance: 284–287

Execution: IWM leading the market higher for the third consecutive session is the most bullish internal breadth signal in the market. Small caps outperforming confirms this is a broad-based rally, not a concentrated tech bounce. A deal today pushes IWM toward 287+. This is the recovery trade working exactly as it should.

XLE

Bias: Bearish Lean — Peace Trade Pressure

Flow: Closed at 59.13 (-1.12%) with pre-market recovering slightly to 59.27 (+0.24%). XLE continues to drift lower as peace optimism builds.

Zones: Support: 58.50–59.00 | Resistance: 60.00–60.50

Execution: XLE's pre-market green is a technical bounce, not a trend reversal. The structural direction is lower as long as the peace trade narrative holds. A confirmed deal today sends XLE toward $56–57 as the war premium evaporates. If talks collapse — XLE snaps back toward $61–62 immediately. This remains the highest binary-risk trade in the market. Know your direction before the Iran headline hits.

What to Watch Today

• Iran's Response to the US Proposal — Today: Rubio said "I believe the Pakistanis will be traveling to Tehran today. So, hopefully, that'll advance this further." (Investing.com) Iran's formal response is the only event that matters today. A positive response — even a framework agreement — is the most market-moving bullish catalyst possible. A flat rejection resumes the escalation risk.

• The Two Dealbreakers to Watch: Uranium transfer and Strait toll system. Trump insists "we will get" Iran's uranium stockpile. Iran's Supreme Leader has ordered it must not be sent abroad. Rubio says a Strait toll system makes a deal "unfeasible." Iran is actively pursuing it. (Investing.com) If either of these is resolved in today's talks, a deal becomes real. If both remain deadlocked, the ceasefire is in serious jeopardy.

• USD/JPY at 159.11 — MoF Watch: One bad headline and this pair tests 159.50–160.00. MoF intervention risk is at its highest level of the cycle.

• VIX Divergence: Rising VIX with green futures is the market hedging a binary event. Watch whether VIX holds below 18 or breaks higher — that is your real-time read on whether the market believes today's talks will succeed.

Bottom Line

Today Is the Binary Event of the Entire War: Pakistan's army chief is in Tehran right now. Iran said the US proposal "reduced the gaps." Rubio said "some good signs." Every market participant in the world is watching the same ticker. Position for the event, not the noise.

The Two Issues That Must Be Resolved: Uranium transfer and Strait control. Everything else is negotiable. These two are not — until one side blinks, a permanent deal cannot be signed. Today's talks may force that moment.

The Tape Is Correctly Cautious: Green equities, rising VIX, oil bouncing from $97 back to $98, XLE barely moving — this is a market that believes in the direction but is not willing to go all-in until the headline confirms. That is the right posture heading into today.

Have Both Playbooks Ready Before the Open: Deal confirmed — buy QQQ, IWM, SPY, sell XLE, watch USD/JPY drop from MoF territory. Talks collapse — oil spikes toward $103+, XLE surges, VIX breaks 20, QQQ gives back this week's gains. Both scenarios are live. Know your exits before the news hits.

Market data sourced from TradingView. Macro drivers compiled from Reuters, CNBC, Bloomberg, RFE/RL, and Polymarket.

Pakistan's army chief is in Tehran. Iran said the gaps are narrowing. The world is watching. Stay close to your screens today — the headline that changes everything could drop at any moment.

Good Morning Traders. It’s a binary Friday. Pakistan’s Army Chief is in Tehran carrying Washington’s latest message, Iran called the US proposal constructive, and Rubio said there are “some good signs.” Equity futures are green, yields are easing, and small caps are leading for the third straight session. But the VIX is rising with the futures — and that tells you everything. The market believes in the direction. It just isn’t convinced yet. Have both playbooks ready before the open, and Happy Trading.

Market Snapshot

Indexes

SPX500: 7,466.8 (+20.4, +0.27%)

US30: 50,444.3 (+123.8, +0.25%)

NAS100: 29,475.4 (+84.8, +0.29%)

VIX: 17.02 (+0.27, +1.61%)

DXY: 99.293 (+0.102, +0.10%)

S&P Futures (Pre-Market): 7,482.00 (+16.00, +0.21%)

Nasdaq Futures: 29,524.50 (+77.25, +0.26%)

Dow Futures: 50,512.00 (+133.00, +0.26%)

Oil & Commodities

WTI (USOIL): 98.44 (+0.45, +0.46%)

Brent (UKOIL): 105.36 (+0.45, +0.43%)

Note: Oil bouncing back after yesterday’s drop below $98. The war premium floor is being re-established ahead of Iran’s expected response. No confirmed deal means no confirmed oil collapse — and that ceiling on risk appetite remains in place.

Treasury Yields

US02Y: 4.08% (-0.02%)

US10Y: 4.56% (-0.35%)

10Y–2Y Spread: +0.48%

Note: 10Y continuing its gradual retreat from last week’s cycle highs. Yield relief is the quiet engine driving QQQ and SPY higher. A confirmed deal today could send the 10Y toward 4.30–4.40% — the single biggest QQQ catalyst possible.

ETF Snapshot

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust): 714.51 (+1.36, +0.19%) | Pre-mkt: 717.07 (+2.56, +0.36%)

SPY (SPDR S&P 500): 742.72 (+1.47, +0.20%) | Pre-mkt: 744.97 (+2.25, +0.30%)

IWM (iShares Russell 2000): 282.49 (+2.62, +0.94%) | Pre-mkt: 283.05 (+0.56, +0.20%)

TQQQ (ProShares UltraPro QQQ): 76.95 (+0.44, +0.58%) | Pre-mkt: 77.71 (+0.76, +0.99%)

SQQQ (ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ): 41.96 (-0.23, -0.55%) | Pre-mkt: 41.56 (-0.40, -0.95%)

SSO (ProShares Ultra S&P500): 67.03 (+0.24, +0.36%) | Pre-mkt: 67.25 (+0.22, +0.33%)

SPXS (Direxion S&P 500 Bear 3x): 27.30 (-0.15, -0.55%) | Pre-mkt: 27.12 (-0.18, -0.66%)

XLE (Energy Select Sector): 59.13 (-0.67, -1.12%) | Pre-mkt: 59.27 (+0.14, +0.24%)

Leverage Confirmation Read:

TQQQ +0.58% and SSO +0.36% closing green while SQQQ and SPXS both close red is a clean bullish confirmation — leverage is aligned with the direction. Pre-market extends that read with TQQQ approaching +1% and the bears continuing to bleed. The one caveat: TQQQ’s RSI remains elevated from earlier in the week, so size discipline on leveraged names is essential today.

Overnight Drivers

Iran Talks — Binary Event in Real Time (Reuters/Bloomberg): Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir is in Tehran today carrying Washington’s latest proposal. Iran said the US offer “reduced the gaps to some extent” — the most constructive language from Tehran since the war began 84 days ago. Two dealbreakers remain: control of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile. Secretary Rubio said there are “some good signs” but called a Strait toll system “unacceptable.” Stocks rose on his comments. The tape is threading the needle.

Intuit (INTU) — Workforce Cut Overshadows Beat (CNBC): Intuit reported better-than-expected Q3 earnings and raised its full-year revenue guidance, now expecting $21.34–$21.37 billion in revenue, ahead of the $21.23 billion consensus. However the company simultaneously announced it is cutting 17% of its full-time workforce — more than 3,000 jobs — triggering $300–$340 million in restructuring charges. (CNBC) Shares tumbled nearly 19% on the news. (TheStreet) The AI-driven restructuring narrative is accelerating across tech — this is not a one-company story.

Ralph Lauren (RL) — Earnings Surge (Reuters/TheStreet): Ralph Lauren surged 10.26% after reporting stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and issuing upbeat fiscal 2027 guidance. (TheStreet) Strong China sales drove the beat (Timothy Sykes) , making RL one of the rare consumer discretionary names bucking the macro headwinds. The stock is a momentum setup heading into today.

Quantum Computing — $2B Federal Funding (WSJ/Bloomberg): IBM gained 6.2% after the US Commerce Department announced a $2 billion funding package for the quantum computing sector. (TheStreet) Rigetti (RGTI) and D-Wave (QBTS) surged over 20% (Tradingkey) on the news. The quantum trade is live and institutionally backed — watch for continuation today.

Intuit Drag on Software Sentiment (TheStreet): Tech-led volatility this morning as Intuit and Endava drag on software sentiment. (Stock Market Watch) The INTU selloff is putting pressure on the broader software sector. Watch whether this bleeds into names like Adobe (ADBE) and Salesforce (CRM) at the open or stays contained to INTU specifically.

Macro Context

Rates — The Quiet Tailwind: The 10Y at 4.56% is down 35bps from last week’s cycle highs and the spread at +0.48% is constructive. This yield relief is the single biggest driver keeping QQQ and SPY elevated. A confirmed Iran deal today could send the 10Y meaningfully lower toward 4.30–4.40% — that would be a massive multiple expansion catalyst for growth stocks.

Volatility — The Warning in Plain Sight: VIX is holding at 17.06 (+1.79%) (Yahoo Finance) while equity futures are green. Rising VIX alongside green futures is the market’s way of hedging a binary event — options traders are buying protection even as equity investors add exposure. Watch whether VIX holds below 18 or breaks higher. That is your real-time confidence gauge on today’s Iran talks.

Sector Rotation — Breadth is the Story: IWM outperforming QQQ and SPY for a third consecutive session is the most bullish internal signal on the board. As of Tuesday’s close, Financials led the S&P 500 sectors at +1.07%, while Energy was the clear laggard at -2.59%. (Bloomberg) The rotation out of energy and into growth and financials is the defining theme of this week’s tape.

Consumer Sentiment — A Headwind to Watch: The University of Michigan’s final May consumer sentiment reading shows sentiment essentially unchanged from April, near the trough reached in June 2022. Current conditions fell about 9%, driven by a surge in concerns about high prices for personal finances and major purchases. About one-third of consumers cited gasoline prices and 30% cited tariffs as concerns. The report notes Middle East developments are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until energy prices fall. (University of Michigan) This is the structural headwind beneath today’s geopolitical optimism — the consumer is not yet feeling the peace dividend.

Economic Calendar

10:00 AM ET — University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final May): Preliminary data shows sentiment near June 2022 trough levels, with current conditions down sharply on energy price concerns. (University of Michigan) A weak final print confirms the stagflation narrative and pressures consumer discretionary names. A surprise improvement — particularly if energy prices have eased — would be a secondary equity catalyst today.

10:00 AM ET — Conference Board Leading Economic Index (April): The LEI declined 0.6% in March to 97.3, reversing February’s gain. The Conference Board has revised its US GDP growth forecast to 1.6% for 2026. (Conference Board) Another decline today would reinforce the slowdown narrative and keep pressure on cyclical sectors.

Sector Watch

Technology (XLK) — Mixed: QQQ and NAS100 are green but the INTU selloff is creating a software overhang. The quantum computing surge via IBM, RGTI, and QBTS is a bright spot. Net bias: cautiously bullish but watch the INTU contagion at the open.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) — Bullish Pocket: Ralph Lauren’s 10%+ surge is the standout. Strong China sales and upbeat guidance in a macro-pressured environment signal genuine brand strength. Watch whether RL’s move lifts the broader luxury and apparel names today.

Energy (XLE) — Bearish Structural: XLE closed -1.12% yesterday and the pre-market bounce of +0.24% is technical, not fundamental. Peace trade pressure keeps the structural bias lower. A confirmed deal sends this sector into a sharp leg down. The only bullish scenario for XLE today is a complete breakdown in Iran talks.

Industrials/AI Infrastructure — Bullish Catalyst: Applied Digital soared 16% after securing a long-term leasing agreement for its AI campus with a potential value of up to $18.2 billion. (TheStreet) AI infrastructure spending remains the most durable growth theme in the market regardless of geopolitical outcome today.

Trade Implications

QQQ

Bias: Bullish — Building Toward Key Resistance

Flow: Closed 714.51 (+0.19%), pre-market extending to 717.07 (+0.36%). Quietly grinding toward the critical 718–720 zone.

Zones: Support: 711–714 | Resistance: 718–722

Execution: A clean break above 718 on a positive Iran headline targets 722–725 and opens the door to a sustained breakout. Confirm with volume — a low-volume push through 718 is a fade, not a breakout. Hold longs with a stop below 711. The yield tailwind and peace optimism are aligned for the bulls today.

SPY

Bias: Bullish — Near All-Time Highs

Flow: Closed 742.72 (+0.20%), pre-market at 744.97 (+0.30%). Within striking distance of the 746–750 resistance zone.

Zones: Support: 739–742 | Resistance: 746–750

Execution: A confirmed Iran deal breaks through 746 and opens the door to 750+. SSO for leveraged bulls. Stop below 739 to protect the position. The Dow above 50,400 and IWM leading confirms the breadth is genuine — this is not a concentrated tech bounce.

IWM

Bias: Strongly Bullish — Leading the Market

Flow: Closed 282.49 (+0.94%), pre-market at 283.05 (+0.20%). Three consecutive sessions of outperformance vs. QQQ and SPY.

Zones: Support: 279–281 | Resistance: 284–287

Execution: IWM leading for a third day is the most powerful breadth signal on the board. A close above 284 today confirms a breakout and targets 287+. A deal sends it toward 290. This is the recovery trade working exactly as designed. Favor IWM longs over QQQ if you’re choosing between the two today.

XLE

Bias: Bearish — Peace Trade Pressure

Flow: Closed 59.13 (-1.12%), pre-market technical bounce to 59.27 (+0.24%). Structural drift lower continues.

Zones: Support: 58.50–59.00 | Resistance: 60.00–60.50

Execution: Do not chase the pre-market bounce — it is not a reversal. A confirmed Iran deal sends XLE toward $56–57 as the war premium evaporates rapidly. Talks collapse — XLE snaps back toward $61–62 immediately. Highest binary-risk ETF on the board today. No position without a clear directional conviction on the Iran outcome.

TQQQ (Leveraged — High Risk)

Bias: Bullish — With Caution on RSI

Flow: Closed 76.95 (+0.58%), pre-market pushing toward 77.71 (+0.99%).

Zones: Support: 74.50–75.50 | Resistance: 78.00–79.00

Execution: Pre-market approaching the 78.00 resistance zone. A QQQ breakout above 718 sends TQQQ toward 79–80. RSI remains elevated — this is not a chase setup. Wait for a confirmed QQQ break above 718 before adding, or buy a dip toward 75.50 if the open is weak. Stop at 74.00 — below that level the trade is over. Size for the leverage; a 1% QQQ move is a 3% TQQQ move.

Stocks to Watch

INTU — Intuit Inc.

Catalyst: Earnings beat + 17% workforce reduction announced simultaneously

Bias: Bearish Near-Term / Volatile

Flow: Tumbled nearly 19% on the session (TheStreet) after the layoff announcement overshadowed the earnings beat. Shares are down more than 40% year-to-date. (Tradingkey)

Zones: Support: 380–390 | Resistance: 420–430

Execution: This is a sell-the-bounce setup. Any pre-market relief rally toward 415–420 is a shorting opportunity with a stop above 430. The restructuring charges of $300–$340M and 17% workforce cut signal management sees a fundamental business model shift — that kind of uncertainty takes multiple sessions to digest. Do not buy the dip on day one.

RL — Ralph Lauren Corp.

Catalyst: Q4 FY2026 earnings beat — EPS and revenue both exceeded consensus, strong China sales, upbeat FY2027 guidance

Bias: Bullish Momentum

Flow: Closed at $374.90 (+13.87%) on Thursday. After-hours holding near $376.76 (+0.50%). (Google Finance)

Zones: Support: 365–368 | Resistance: 380–385

Execution: Technically, RL has shown dips attract buyers — the violent snap from roughly $329 to the high $370s in a single session signals an aggressive dip-buying crowd. (Timothy Sykes) A clean open above 375 targets the 380–385 resistance zone. Buy the dip toward 365–368 if the broader market opens soft. Stop below 360. Analyst price targets cluster in the mid-$400s with UBS at $480 — there is significant room to run if macro headwinds ease.

IBM — International Business Machines

Catalyst: $2B federal quantum computing funding package — Commerce Dept. awarded grants to nine quantum companies including IBM

Bias: Bullish — Quantum + AI Infrastructure Theme

Flow: Gained 6.2% on Thursday (TheStreet) on the funding news. Pre-market showing bullish options flow with 58,670 calls trading at 9x expected volume, with implied volatility increasing nearly 4 points. (StockAnalysis)

Zones: Support: 230–233 | Resistance: 240–245

Execution: The options flow is the tell — institutional money is positioning for continuation. A clean open above 237 targets the 240–245 resistance zone. The 5/22 weekly 240 and 245 calls are active — watch those strikes as real-time magnets for price action today. Stop below 230. The quantum funding story has legs beyond today’s session.

APLD — Applied Digital Corp.

Catalyst: Long-term AI campus lease agreement worth up to $18.2B with a US high investment-grade hyperscaler

Bias: Strongly Bullish — AI Infrastructure Momentum

Flow: Soared 16% on Thursday (TheStreet) on the lease announcement. The 15-year lease agreement expands its lease revenue pipeline to roughly $31B, signaling substantial growth supported by AI infrastructure demand. (Seeking Alpha)

Zones: Support: 43–45 | Resistance: 48–50

Execution: The $31B pipeline number is the catalyst that keeps giving — this is not a one-day trade. A pullback toward 43–45 support is the buy. A gap-and-go open above 47 targets 50 and beyond. Stop below 42. AI infrastructure is the most durable secular theme in the market right now and APLD just secured a generational contract. Size appropriately — this name is volatile.

What to Watch Today

• Iran’s Response — The Only Event That Matters: Pakistan’s army chief is in Tehran right now. A positive response — even a framework agreement — is the most market-moving bullish catalyst possible today. A flat rejection reverses this week’s equity gains quickly. Stay close to headlines all session.

• 10:00 AM ET — Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final May): Preliminary data near multi-year lows. A surprise to the upside boosts consumer discretionary. A miss reinforces the stagflation narrative and pressures the broader tape.

• 10:00 AM ET — Conference Board LEI: Third consecutive decline would signal a meaningful growth slowdown ahead. Watch financials and industrials for the reaction.

• INTU Contagion Check: Watch whether the software sector — particularly ADBE and CRM — sells off in sympathy at the open or whether INTU’s move stays contained to the single name.

• VIX 18 Level: VIX holding below 18 = market believes the Iran talks will advance. VIX breaking above 18 = the tape is hedging a breakdown. This is your most important real-time risk gauge today.

Bottom Line

Binary Friday: Every major catalyst — Iran talks, consumer sentiment, LEI — lands today. Position for the event, not the noise. Know your playbook for both outcomes before the open bell rings.

The Tape Is Correctly Cautious: Green futures, rising VIX, oil holding at $98, XLE barely moving. This is a market that believes in the direction but demands confirmation before going all-in. That is the right posture.

AI is the Through-Line: APLD’s $31B pipeline, IBM’s quantum funding, INTU’s AI-driven restructuring — regardless of the Iran outcome, the AI infrastructure buildout is accelerating. The market is telling you where the durable money is going.

Have Both Playbooks Ready: Deal confirmed — buy QQQ above 718, hold IWM toward 287, sell XLE, 10Y drops toward 4.35%, TQQQ targets 80. Talks collapse — oil spikes toward $103+, XLE surges to 61–62, VIX breaks 20, QQQ gives back the week. Both are live right now.

Market data sourced from TradingView. Macro drivers compiled from Reuters, CNBC, Bloomberg, TheStreet, Benzinga, University of Michigan, and The Conference Board.

Pakistan’s army chief is in Tehran. Iran said the gaps are narrowing. The world is watching. Stay close to your screens today — the headline that changes everything could drop at any moment.

Good Morning Traders. This is the morning the market has been waiting for since February 28. Trump stated the US is in the "final stages of talks with Iran," and satellite data is showing three supertankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz — potentially reflecting a looser grip on traffic for the first time since March. (FRED) WTI has broken below $98. The Dow just crossed 50,000 for the first time this cycle. QQQ is up 1.66%. IWM is surging 2.52%. VIX is dropping. And XLE is the only red ETF in the room. This is not a bounce — this is the peace trade re-engaging in full force. Iran's Foreign Ministry confirmed it has received the US proposal and is reviewing it, with Pakistan continuing to mediate exchanges between Tehran and Washington. (Investing.com) Nothing is signed. Nothing is guaranteed. But the tape is telling you exactly what it believes. Be careful out there and Happy Trading.

Market Snapshot

Oil & Commodities

WTI (USOIL): 97.50 (-1.57 / -1.58%)

Brent (UKOIL): 103.99 (-1.16 / -1.10%)

Note: WTI fell more than 5% Wednesday to below $100 on fresh hope that Middle East supply could be gradually restored, with satellite data showing three supertankers crossing the Strait. (FRED) This morning WTI is consolidating the move below $98 — a psychologically and technically critical level.

Indexes

DXY: 99.098 (-0.027 / -0.03%)

SPX500: 7,442.1 (+29.6 / +0.40%)

US30: 50,129.6 (+168.3 / +0.34%)

NAS100: 29,344.2 (+121.4 / +0.42%)

VIX: 17.16 (-0.27 / -1.55%)

FX

USD/JPY: 158.93 (-0.001 / 0.00%)

EUR/USD: 1.1632 (+0.00073 / +0.06%)

GBP/USD: 1.3444 (+0.00100 / +0.07%)

USD/CAD: 1.3762 (+0.00172 / +0.13%)

AUD/USD: 0.7141 (-0.00116 / -0.16%)

ETFs

QQQ: 713.15 (+11.62 / +1.66%) | Pre-mkt: 713.74 (+0.59 / +0.08%)

SPY: 741.25 (+7.52 / +1.02%) | Pre-mkt: 742.43 (+1.18 / +0.16%)

IWM: 279.87 (+6.87 / +2.52%) | Pre-mkt: 280.05 (+0.18 / +0.06%)

XLE: 59.80 (-1.49 / -2.43%) | Pre-mkt: 59.64 (-0.16 / -0.27%)

Treasury Yields

US02Y: 4.05% (-0.03 / -0.70%)

US10Y: 4.57% (-0.02 / -0.33%)

10Y–2Y Spread: +0.52%

Overnight Drivers

Trump: "Final Stages" of Iran Talks (FXStreet/Trading Economics): Trump stated the US was in the "final stages" of talks with Iran, backing earlier statements that Tehran could end the war quickly. WTI crude oil futures fell more than 5% to below $100 on the news, with an agreement likely to end each country's naval blockade of commercial vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz. (Investing.com) This is the most bullish diplomatic language Trump has used since the war began.

Three Supertankers Cross the Strait (Trading Economics/FXStreet): Satellite data showing three supertankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz is potentially reflecting a looser grip on traffic for the first time since the blockade began in March. (FRED) Three tankers is not a reopening — but it is proof of concept that the physical waterway can move again. Markets are pricing the direction, not the destination.

Iran Reviewing US Proposal — Pakistan Mediating (CNBC): Iran's Foreign Ministry confirmed it has received the US proposal and is reviewing it, with Pakistan's Army Chief Asim Munir expected to travel to Tehran as part of ongoing mediation efforts. Several rounds of communication have taken place based on Iran's original 14-point framework. (FXStreet) The diplomatic machinery is moving faster than at any point since April.

US Crude Inventories Drew 7.86 Million Barrels (FXStreet): According to the EIA report, crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending May 15 fell by 7.864 million barrels — more than double the consensus estimate of 2.9 million barrels. (Investing.com) The underlying supply picture remains extremely tight. Even on a deal, the physical market will take weeks to normalize. Oil has a structural floor well above pre-war levels.

Dow 50,000 — A Psychological Milestone: The Dow crossing 50,000 during a session where peace optimism is building is not a coincidence — it is the market sending a clear signal about where risk appetite is headed if a deal materializes. Combined with IWM's +2.52% surge, the broadening of market participation is the most constructive internal signal since the conflict began.

Macro Context

Rates — Relief Continues: 10Y easing to 4.57% (-0.33%) and 2Y to 4.05% (-0.70%) marks the second consecutive session of yield relief. The spread holding at +0.52% is still elevated but the direction is constructive. Lower yields are directly expanding tech multiples — which explains QQQ's +1.66% session.

Energy — $98 WTI Is a Structural Signal: Key support for WTI lies at $98–$100, and a break below $103.40 was already signaling a bearish momentum shift. (ADP) WTI printing $97.50 this morning is a significant technical development. If a deal is confirmed and the Strait fully reopens, the EIA's projection of Brent averaging $89 in Q4 comes into view. The path to $85–$90 oil is now visible for the first time since the war began.

VIX — Fear Is Retreating: Dropping to 17.16 (-1.55%) — the lowest level since early May. The market is actively de-risking its war hedges. A sustained move below 16 would signal the institutional community has fully shifted from defensive to offensive positioning.

Trade Implications:

USD/JPY

Bias: Slightly Bearish — Peace Trade Pressure

Flow: Barely moving at 158.93 (0.00%). The pair is holding deep in MoF territory but not pushing higher as USD strength fades on peace optimism.

Zones: Support: 158.20–158.50 | Resistance: 159.30–159.50

Execution: The peace trade is a mild USD negative — risk-on flows reduce safe-haven USD demand. If a deal materializes, expect USD/JPY to pull back toward 158.00–158.20 as the USD bid fades. The MoF intervention risk also recedes slightly as the pair moves away from 160.00. Watch for a gradual drift lower if the deal narrative strengthens.

EUR/USD

Bias: Cautiously Bullish — Peace Trade Recovery

Flow: Ticking up slightly to 1.1632 (+0.06%). EUR is attempting to recover from multi-week lows.

Zones: Support: 1.1600–1.1620 | Resistance: 1.1670–1.1700

Execution: A confirmed Iran deal is a significant EUR tailwind — European energy import costs collapse, inflation relief arrives, and the ECB regains policy flexibility. The recovery from 1.1589 lows is early but directionally correct. A break above 1.1700 on deal confirmation would be a meaningful technical recovery signal.

GBP/USD

Bias: Cautiously Bullish

Flow: Ticking up to 1.3444 (+0.07%). GBP is stabilizing and attempting a recovery from recent lows.

Zones: Support: 1.3400–1.3420 | Resistance: 1.3480–1.3520

Execution: GBP is one of the highest-beta peace-trade currencies given the UK's significant energy import exposure. A confirmed deal could see a sharp recovery toward 1.3520–1.3550. Buy dips toward 1.3400 with a stop below 1.3370, targeting the 1.3500 handle on deal confirmation.

USD/CAD

Bias: Bearish USD — CAD Peace Trade Beneficiary

Flow: Barely changed at 1.3762 (+0.13%) despite oil pulling back below $98. The CAD is not yet fully pricing in the peace trade.

Zones: Support: 1.3720–1.3740 | Resistance: 1.3790–1.3810

Execution: The paradox here — oil falling should hurt CAD, but a peace deal means global risk-on, which helps CAD through broader commodity demand and risk appetite. A confirmed Strait reopening sends this pair toward 1.3600–1.3650 as the USD safe-haven premium collapses. Watch for this pair to become a peace-trade expression trade.

AUD/USD

Bias: Bullish — Lagging the Peace Trade

Flow: Slightly lower at 0.7141 (-0.16%) — AUD is the one FX pair not yet participating in the peace rally. This is unusual given AUD's sensitivity to risk appetite.

Zones: Support: 0.7110–0.7130 | Resistance: 0.7170–0.7200

Execution: AUD's lag is a setup, not a warning. When AUD catches up to the peace trade — and it will — the move toward 0.7200 could be fast. A long near 0.7130–0.7140 with a stop below 0.7100 offers a favorable risk-reward entry ahead of any deal confirmation.

QQQ

Bias: Strongly Bullish

Flow: Strong close at 713.15 (+1.66%) with pre-market adding gains at 713.74 (+0.08%). QQQ has fully recovered from last week's selloff.

Zones: Support: 708–711 | Resistance: 716–720

Execution: The yield relief plus peace optimism is the perfect combination for tech. QQQ is back above all key support levels and building momentum. A confirmed Iran deal sends yields lower, DXY lower, and QQQ toward 720–725. Hold longs. TQQQ holders — the setup you waited for all week is materializing.

SPY

Bias: Strongly Bullish

Flow: Closed at 741.25 (+1.02%) with pre-market continuing to 742.43 (+0.16%). SPY is back at all-time high territory.

Zones: Support: 737–740 | Resistance: 744–748

Execution: Broad market participation is back — Dow 50,000, S&P at highs, IWM leading. The internal breadth is the most constructive it has been since early May. A deal confirmation pushes SPY cleanly through 744 resistance toward 748+. SSO holders — your patience is being rewarded.

IWM

Bias: Strongly Bullish — Leading Indicator Flipping Positive

Flow: The standout ETF performer at +2.52% to 279.87 with pre-market holding gains at 280.05. Small caps are leading the market higher for the first time in weeks.

Zones: Support: 276–279 | Resistance: 282–285

Execution: IWM leading the market higher is the single most bullish internal signal in today's tape. Small caps are the most sensitive to rate relief and economic recovery expectations — their outperformance confirms the peace trade is broadening beyond just large-cap tech. A break above 282 on deal confirmation opens the door to 285+. This is now a buy-the-dip trade, not a short.

XLE

Bias: Bearish — Peace Trade Reversal Underway

Flow: The only red ETF at -2.43% to 59.80 with pre-market continuing lower at 59.64 (-0.27%). XLE is the direct casualty of the peace trade.

Zones: Support: 58.50–59.00 | Resistance: 60.50–61.00

Execution: XLE is now the short trade if a deal is confirmed. Three supertankers through the Strait, Trump saying "final stages," and WTI below $98 are all pointing in the same direction. A confirmed deal sends XLE toward $56–57 as the war premium is fully removed. If you are long XLE — this is your exit signal. If you are watching for a short entry — a break below $59.00 with confirmation is the trigger. SPXS and SQQQ holders — consider rotating out as the tape reverses.

What to Watch Today

• Any Official Iran Deal Announcement: This is the only event that matters today. A confirmed agreement — even a framework — sends oil crashing, equities surging, and XLE selling hard. Have your playbook ready for both a confirmed deal and a last-minute collapse.

• Supertanker Count in the Strait: Three tankers yesterday. Watch for satellite updates throughout the day. A growing number of vessels transiting is the physical market confirming the diplomatic signal.

• WTI at $97.50 — The $95 Technical Target: WTI is pulling back sharply from the $105.46 swing high, with the 100 SMA crossing below the 200 SMA confirming the bearish momentum shift. (ADP) A break below $95 would be the most significant technical development in oil since the war began — it would signal the market is pricing in a near-term Strait reopening.

• IWM Above 280 — The Breadth Signal: Small caps holding above 280 into the close is the confirmation that the rally has genuine breadth, not just large-cap tech concentration. Watch this level at the close.

Bottom Line

This Is the Morning the Market Has Been Positioning For: Trump's "final stages" language, three supertankers in the Strait, and Iran reviewing the proposal — this is the closest the market has been to a deal since the war began. The tape is not subtle about what it thinks: Dow 50,000, QQQ +1.66%, IWM +2.52%, WTI below $98.

The Rotation Is the Story: XLE -2.43% while IWM +2.52% is the clearest possible picture of money moving out of the war trade and into the recovery trade. This is not a sector wobble — it is a macro regime shift in real time.

Nothing Is Signed — Binary Risk Remains: Trump has said "final stages" before. Iran has denied proposals Trump claimed they accepted before. Until ink is on paper and tankers are moving freely, every position carries reversal risk. Size for the binary outcome and have stops defined.

The Long ETFs Are Now the Right Tactical Tools: QQQ, SPY, IWM, TQQQ, SSO — the recovery playbook is activating. The short ETFs served their purpose during the stagflation trade. The rotation is happening now.

Market data sourced from TradingView. Macro drivers compiled from CNBC, Reuters, FXStreet, Trading Economics, and Polymarket.

Trump says "final stages." Three supertankers are moving through the Strait. The Dow just crossed 50,000. Stay close to your screens — today could be the day.

Good Morning Traders. Trump blinked — and markets are responding this morning. Trump posted on Truth Social Monday that he was postponing a "scheduled attack of Iran" following personal requests from the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, saying "serious negotiations are now taking place." (FXStreet) Oil is pulling back, yields are easing, VIX is falling, and equity futures are green across the board. But before you get too comfortable — Trump told reporters Tuesday that Iran has "two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday, maybe early next week" to agree to a deal, and warned the US may have to give Iran "another big hit" if they don't. (FXStreet) This is not a peace deal. This is a 72-hour window. The market is trading the pause, not the resolution. Know the difference. Be careful out there and Happy Trading.

Market Snapshot

Oil & Commodities

WTI (USOIL): 102.44 (-1.58 / -1.52%)

Brent (UKOIL): 109.28 (-1.63 / -1.47%)

∞ Note: Oil pulling back on Trump's pause announcement but Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen noted "we continue to jump from one news cycle to the next, with plenty of noise being created, but so far no meaningful developments pointing toward the beginning of the end of the war." (RoboForex) WTI remains well above $100. This is not a structural reversal.

Indexes

DXY: 99.428 (+0.120 / +0.12%)

SPX500: 7,382.1 (+31.4 / +0.43%)

US30: 49,445.9 (+91.0 / +0.18%)

NAS100: 29,069.4 (+240.2 / +0.83%)

VIX: 17.95 (-0.10 / -0.55%)

FX

USD/JPY: 159.04 (-0.034 / -0.02%)

EUR/USD: 1.1589 (-0.00168 / -0.14%)

GBP/USD: 1.3386 (-0.00086 / -0.06%)

USD/CAD: 1.3777 (+0.00329 / +0.24%)

AUD/USD: 0.7112 (+0.00055 / +0.08%)

ETFs

QQQ: 701.53 (-4.35 / -0.62%) | Pre-mkt: 706.85 (+5.32 / +0.76%)

SPY: 733.73 (-4.92 / -0.67%) | Pre-mkt: 736.56 (+2.83 / +0.39%)

IWM: 273.00 (-2.97 / -1.08%) | Pre-mkt: 274.09 (+1.09 / +0.40%)

XLE: 61.29 (+0.71 / +1.17%) | Pre-mkt: 60.95 (-0.34 / -0.56%)

Treasury Yields

US02Y: 4.09% (-0.03 / -0.70%)

US10Y: 4.64% (-0.03 / -0.56%)

10Y–2Y Spread: +0.55%

Overnight Drivers

° Trump Cancels Scheduled Iran Strike — 72-Hour Window Opens (Reuters/CNBC): Trump said he had shelved plans for a "scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow" following requests from the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Before his Truth Social post, Trump had told the New York Post that Iran knows "what's going to be happening soon," suggesting the strike was genuinely imminent before Gulf Arab leaders intervened. (FXStreet) The diplomatic pressure from US allies — not Iran — is what paused the military action.

° Trump's Deadline: "Two or Three Days" (CNBC/Bloomberg): Trump told reporters the US might attack Iran again if they don't agree to a deal, giving Tehran a window of "two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday, something, maybe early next week." (FXStreet) This is the most explicit countdown clock of the entire war. Circle Friday–Sunday on your calendar — that is the binary risk window.

° Some Shipping Resuming — But Fragile (CNBC/ING): ING analysts noted that some shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed, including several crude tankers and a Vietnamese-bound Iraqi oil shipment, though flows remain well below normal levels and could deteriorate quickly. "The ongoing supply disruptions mean the market has had to rely largely on inventory and alternative supply, where possible," they wrote. (FXStreet) A trickle of ships is not a reopening.

° Strategic Petroleum Reserve Nearly Depleted (Reuters): A record 9.9 million barrels were drawn from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week, bringing the reserve to critically low levels. (RoboForex) The US has been burning through its emergency buffer at an unprecedented pace. When the SPR runs dry, the price floor for WTI rises significantly — this is a structural development with long-term consequences regardless of how the diplomacy plays out.

° Chinese Refiners Slashing Output (Reuters): Chinese state refiners have slashed oil throughput by more than one million barrels per day since the outbreak of the Iran war. Chinese state refiners are processing 8.4 million bpd of crude this month, down from 9.5 million bpd in March, compared with about 10 million bpd before the war began. (RoboForex) The supply shock is now creating demand destruction in the world's largest oil importer — a deflationary signal buried inside a broader inflationary story.

Macro Context

• Rates — First Yield Relief in Over a Week: 10Y easing to 4.64% (-0.56%) and 2Y to 4.09% (-0.70%) is the first meaningful yield pullback since the post-summit selloff began. The spread holding at +0.55% — the widest of this cycle — still signals the market is pricing long-term inflation, not near-term recession. But the direction of travel today is a relief.

• Energy — The Pause Is Not the Peace: WTI below $103 for the first time in days is a genuine positive signal. However the structural supply damage — depleted SPR, Chinese refiners cutting output, Strait flows at a trickle — means oil cannot fall meaningfully until a verified, durable Strait reopening occurs. Brent slid below $111 as traders weighed Trump's latest Iran threats (FXStreet) — the market is not celebrating, it is recalibrating within a war premium range.

• VIX — Pulling Back But Not Complacent: Easing to 17.95 (-0.55%) as the immediate strike threat recedes. The 72-hour countdown clock Trump set means VIX could spike sharply again by end of week if negotiations collapse. Do not read today's VIX pullback as an all-clear signal.

Trade Implications

USD/JPY

Bias: Extremely Cautious — Deep in MoF Territory

Flow: Barely moving at 159.04 (-0.02%). The pair remains deep in MoF intervention territory with no sign of official action yet.

Zones: Support: 158.50–158.80 | Resistance: 159.50–160.00

Execution: USD/JPY above 159 with MoF silent is the most dangerous FX setup on the board. Either intervention comes without warning or the MoF is accepting a structurally weaker yen temporarily. Either way — no aggressive longs above 159. The intervention risk scales with every pip higher toward 160.

EUR/USD

Bias: Bearish — Structural Downtrend Intact

Flow: Drifting lower to 1.1589 (-0.14%). EUR has now broken below 1.1600 — a significant technical level.

Zones: Support: 1.1560–1.1580 | Resistance: 1.1620–1.1640

Execution: The break below 1.1600 is technically significant. DXY holding above 99 keeps the pressure on EUR. A deal breakthrough this week reverses this quickly — but today the trend is lower. Watch 1.1560 as the next key support.

GBP/USD

Bias: Bearish / Attempting Stabilization

Flow: Barely changed at 1.3386 (-0.06%). GBP is the most stable major FX pair this morning — holding its ground rather than extending losses.

Zones: Support: 1.3340–1.3360 | Resistance: 1.3420–1.3440

Execution: GBP's relative stability amid broad USD strength is a mild positive signal. A hold above 1.3340 keeps a recovery attempt alive. However the macro environment — rising UK yields, energy exposure, global risk-off — caps any meaningful rally without a peace catalyst.

USD/CAD

Bias: Bullish USD — Oil Pull Not Saving CAD

Flow: Rising to 1.3777 (+0.24%) even as oil pulls back. USD strength is the dominant driver.

Zones: Support: 1.3740–1.3760 | Resistance: 1.3800–1.3830

Execution: The 1.3800 level is the next target if DXY continues higher. CAD is not benefiting from the oil pullback because the broader USD bid is overwhelming commodity currency support. Follow DXY, not WTI, for direction on this pair.

AUD/USD

Bias: Neutral — Attempting Recovery

Flow: Barely positive at 0.7112 (+0.08%). AUD is stabilizing after last week's -0.77% session but recovery momentum is minimal.

Zones: Support: 0.7080–0.7100 | Resistance: 0.7140–0.7160

Execution: AUD needs two things to recover meaningfully — a weaker DXY and a genuine risk-on catalyst. Today's Trump pause gives a slight lift but the 72-hour countdown clock limits conviction. Cautious longs near 0.7100 with tight stops, targeting 0.7160 if the pause narrative holds through midweek.

QQQ

Bias: Cautiously Bullish — Pre-Market Recovery

Flow: Closed at 701.53 (-0.62%) but pre-market recovering strongly to 706.85 (+0.76%). The 700 support level held and the market is bouncing off it.

Zones: Support: 700–703 | Resistance: 708–712

Execution: The 700 level holding and pre-market recovering +0.76% is a technically constructive signal. If QQQ can push through 708 resistance on today's open with volume, the next target is 712–715. The yield easing this morning is the direct catalyst — every 10bps lower in the 10Y gives QQQ room to breathe. However the 72-hour Iran countdown means this bounce has an expiration date. Manage risk accordingly.

SPY

Bias: Cautiously Bullish

Flow: Closed at 733.73 (-0.67%) but pre-market recovering to 736.56 (+0.39%). The index is bouncing off the 732–735 support band that we flagged all week.

Zones: Support: 732–735 | Resistance: 739–742

Execution: The support band held exactly as expected. Pre-market green confirms buyers stepped in at the right level. A clean open above 736 with follow-through targets 739–742 resistance. The Trump pause narrative supports the bounce — but size for the binary risk that exists Friday through Sunday.

IWM

Bias: Neutral — Watching for Confirmation

Flow: Closed at 273.00 (-1.08%) — the weakest close of the week — but pre-market recovering to 274.09 (+0.40%).

Zones: Support: 271–273 | Resistance: 276–279

Execution: IWM's pre-market recovery is the most important leading indicator signal this morning. Small caps bouncing after four consecutive down sessions suggests the worst of the rate-driven selling may be near-term exhausted. A hold above 273 and a push toward 276 confirms the relief rally has legs. A failure to hold 273 on the open signals the correction is not finished.

XLE

Bias: Bullish — But Watch the Pause Carefully

Flow: Closed at 61.29 (+1.17%) — a new cycle high. Pre-market pulling back slightly to 60.95 (-0.56%) as oil eases on the Trump pause.

Zones: Support: 60.00–60.50 | Resistance: 61.50–62.50

Execution: XLE at a new cycle high with a slight pre-market pullback on reduced strike risk is a healthy consolidation, not a trend reversal. The structural bull case — depleted SPR, Strait flows below normal, 72-hour countdown — remains fully intact. Buy dips toward 60.00–60.50. The 72-hour window is actually a near-term floor for XLE — if talks collapse by the weekend, oil spikes and XLE surges. If a deal emerges, XLE sells off hard. Know which scenario you're trading.

What to Watch Today

• Trump's 72-Hour Iran Deadline — Friday Through Sunday: This is the single most important risk event on the calendar this week. Any deal announcement sends oil crashing, QQQ surging, and XLE selling hard. A breakdown resumes the strike threat and reverses everything. Have both playbooks ready.

• 10Y Yield Direction: Easing to 4.64% this morning is a positive signal. A sustained move below 4.60% gives QQQ and SPY room to recover further. A reversal back above 4.65% kills the bounce.

• QQQ at 706.85 Pre-Market: Watch whether QQQ holds the 700 support level on any intraday pullback. A decisive hold confirms the technical floor. A break below 700 on volume signals the bounce is a head fake.

• SPR Data (EIA Release This Week): With the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at critically low levels, this week's EIA data will reveal how much buffer remains. A new record draw would be a structural oil-price floor signal regardless of short-term diplomacy.

Bottom Line

Trump's Pause Is a 72-Hour Trade, Not a Peace Deal: The market is right to bounce — a cancelled strike is genuinely positive. But the clock starts now. Friday through Sunday is when the binary risk resolves. Position size accordingly and have clear exit levels defined before the weekend.

The Structural Energy Story Has Not Changed: Depleted SPR, Chinese refiners cutting output, Strait flows a trickle, and WTI still above $102 — the pause changes the near-term headline risk but not the physical supply reality. XLE's pullback in pre-market is a buying opportunity, not a trend reversal signal.

Yields Easing Is the Real Relief: The 10Y pulling back from 4.64% to slightly lower is what's driving QQQ's pre-market recovery. That relationship — yields down, tech up — is the most reliable trade in this market. Watch the 10Y as the primary leading indicator for QQQ direction today.

IWM Is the Tell for the Broader Market: Small caps bouncing after four consecutive down sessions is the most constructive signal in today's tape. If IWM holds 273 and pushes toward 276, the relief rally is real. If it fails to hold, the broader market correction resumes regardless of the Iran headline noise.

Market data sourced from TradingView. Macro drivers compiled from Reuters, CNBC, Bloomberg, ING Research, and Saxo Bank.

Seventy-two hours. That's Trump's deadline for Iran. Trade the pause but know your exit.

Good Morning Traders. The war is grinding into a dangerous new phase and markets are pricing it in hard this morning. WTI is above $103, Brent just crossed $110, the 10Y yield is at 4.62%, USD/JPY is at 159.12 — the deepest into MoF intervention territory we have seen this cycle — and every major index is red while XLE continues its relentless climb. On the diplomatic front, as of May 17th President Trump has set five new preconditions for Iran to resume negotiations, including delivery of 400kg of enriched uranium to the US, allowing only one Iranian nuclear facility to remain operational, withholding all frozen asset releases, conditioning any halt to the war on the outcome of negotiations, and refusing to pay any war reparations. (FXStreet) Iran has called these demands "maximalist." The gap between the two sides has never been wider. The ceasefire — already violated repeatedly by both sides — is holding in name only. Be very careful out there and Happy Trading.

Market Snapshot

Oil & Commodities

WTI (USOIL): 103.38 (+0.90 / +0.88%)

Brent (UKOIL): 110.40 (+0.72 / +0.66%)

Note: Brent breaking $110 is a major psychological and structural level. The war premium is deepening as Trump's five new preconditions signal a resolution is further away than ever.

Indexes

DXY: 99.255 (+0.299 / +0.30%)

SPX500: 7,364.3 (-33.1 / -0.45%)

US30: 49,526.4 (-137.3 / -0.28%)

NAS100: 28,786.6 (-215.9 / -0.74%)

VIX: 18.30 (+0.49 / +2.75%)

FX

USD/JPY: 159.12 (+0.264 / +0.17%)

EUR/USD: 1.1618 (-0.00375 / -0.32%)

GBP/USD: 1.3403 (-0.00303 / -0.23%)

USD/CAD: 1.3762 (+0.00232 / +0.17%)

AUD/USD: 0.7113 (-0.00551 / -0.77%)

ETFs

QQQ: 705.88 (-3.05 / -0.43%) | Pre-mkt: 700.39 (-5.49 / -0.78%)

SPY: 738.65 (-0.52 / -0.07%) | Pre-mkt: 735.05 (-3.60 / -0.49%)

IWM: 275.97 (-1.63 / -0.59%) | Pre-mkt: 274.32 (-1.65 / -0.60%)

XLE: 60.58 (+1.14 / +1.92%) | Pre-mkt: 60.64 (+0.06 / +0.10%)

Treasury Yields

US02Y: 4.08% (+0.03 / +0.79%)

US10Y: 4.62% (+0.03 / +0.65%)

10Y–2Y Spread: +0.54%

Overnight Drivers

Trump's Five New Preconditions Harden US Position (CNBC): Trump has set five preconditions for Iran to resume deal negotiations: delivery of 400kg of enriched uranium to the US, allowing only one Iranian nuclear facility to remain operational, withholding release of even 25% of Iran's frozen assets, conditioning any halt to the war on the outcome of negotiations, and refusing to pay any compensation or damages to Iran. (FXStreet) An Emirates official noted they don't expect Iran to hold because "the military and economic devastation has been substantial" — but Tehran has shown no sign of capitulating.

Iran Calls US Demands "Maximalist" — Talks in Limbo (CNBC/PBS): Talks between the US and Iran are being mediated by Pakistan, and issues under discussion include freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's nuclear and ballistic program, reconstruction and sanctions, and a long-term peace agreement. (FXStreet) Iran has stated it will not accept any further temporary ceasefires and is demanding international guarantees against future aggression — a position completely incompatible with the US five-point precondition list.

Ceasefire Violations Mounting — IRGC Active (International Crisis Group): Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Dan Caine confirmed that since the ceasefire was announced, Iran has fired at commercial vessels nine times, seized two container ships, and attacked US forces more than 10 times — all described as "below the threshold of restarting full conflict." (FXStreet) The ceasefire exists on paper only. The Strait remains effectively closed to Western commercial shipping.

Brent at $110 — Supply Damage Is Structural (CNBC/Energy Aspects): Oil prices have now surged more than 55% since the war began on February 28. Energy Aspects founder Amrita Sen warned that OPEC's pledged production increases are "largely symbolic" and that the real question is "when Hormuz reopens, and at what capacity and what pace." She added that if the Strait remains disrupted long-term, demand needs to fall to 2013 levels — about 10 million barrels per day less than current consumption. (Fastio) This is not a temporary shock. It is a structural supply crisis.

10Y Yield Path Toward 5% Remains Live (CNBC/PGIM): PGIM's Daleep Singh warned last week that overlapping supply shocks — Covid, Ukraine, tariffs, immigration, and now Iran — suggest "we're going to be in a structurally higher inflation environment." He noted that if the 10Y marches toward 5%, Treasury intervention via financial repression becomes the end game. (AmazeTech) At 4.62% this morning, that scenario is getting closer.

Macro Context

Rates — The Spread Is Widening: 10Y at 4.62%, 2Y at 4.08%, spread now +0.54% — the widest it has been this cycle. A steepening yield curve at this level means the market is pricing in persistent long-term inflation, not near-term growth. That is the definition of the stagflation trap — and it is tightening around the Fed with every barrel of oil above $100.

Energy — $110 Brent Changes the Calculus: Brent crossing $110 is not just a price level — it is the threshold at which energy costs begin to cause visible, measurable damage to corporate margins across every sector. Airlines, logistics, manufacturing, chemicals — every input-cost sensitive industry reprices at $110 Brent. Watch for earnings warning headlines this week as the impact becomes undeniable.

VIX — Grinding Higher: At 18.30 and rising, VIX is on a steady upward path. The 20 level remains the critical threshold — a sustained break above it signals institutional de-risking is underway, not just hedging. The combination of QQQ pre-market -0.78%, SPY -0.49%, and IWM -0.60% suggests the broader selloff is broadening, not narrowing.

Trade Implications:

Read more

Good Morning Traders. Welcome to what may be the most consequential week since this war began. The Beijing summit is over — it delivered stability language but no Strait breakthrough. Over the weekend, tensions flared near the Strait of Hormuz as a ship was seized and another was sunk (FXStreet) , shattering any lingering optimism from Trump's China trip. Oil is back above $102. Yields are at cycle highs with the 10Y sitting at 4.60%. VIX is pushing toward 19. Energy Aspects founder Amrita Sen warned this week that global economies may be "sleepwalking into a pretty big recession" and that "if anything, oil should be higher and equity markets should be a lot, lot weaker." (Bloomberg) The market is starting to listen. Be very careful out there and Happy Trading.

Market Snapshot

Oil & Commodities

WTI (USOIL): 102.01 (+0.86 / +0.85%)

Brent (UKOIL): 109.96 (+0.48 / +0.44%)

Note: Oil grinding back above $102 after weekend Strait incidents. The war premium is fully re-embedded and showing no signs of abating. Brent approaching $110 is a critical level to watch.

Indexes

DXY: 99.155 (-0.114 / -0.11%)

SPX500: 7,390.2 (-5.3 / -0.07%)

US30: 49,229.2 (-168.9 / -0.34%)

NAS100: 29,129.2 (+12.2 / +0.04%)

VIX: 18.95 (+0.53 / +2.88%)

FX

USD/JPY: 158.87 (+0.102 / +0.06%)

EUR/USD: 1.1638 (+0.00128 / +0.11%)

GBP/USD: 1.3364 (+0.00400 / +0.30%)

USD/CAD: 1.3741 (-0.00079 / -0.06%)

AUD/USD: 0.7158 (+0.00100 / +0.14%)

ETFs

QQQ: 708.93 (-10.86 / -1.51%) | Pre-mkt: 708.19 (-0.74 / -0.10%)

SPY: 739.17 (-9.00 / -1.20%) | Pre-mkt: 737.13 (-2.04 / -0.28%)

IWM: 277.60 (-6.85 / -2.41%) | Pre-mkt: 277.16 (-0.44 / -0.16%)

XLE: 59.44 (+1.37 / +2.36%) | Pre-mkt: 59.52 (+0.08 / +0.13%)

SPXS: 27.69 (+1.00 / +3.75%) | Pre-mkt: 27.91 (+0.22 / +0.79%)

SQQQ: 42.98 (+1.91 / +4.65%) | Pre-mkt: 43.12 (+0.14 / +0.33%)

Treasury Yields

US02Y: 4.09% (+0.01 / +0.17%)

US10Y: 4.60% (+0.00 / +0.04%)

10Y–2Y Spread: +0.51%

Overnight Drivers

Strait of Hormuz — Ship Seized, Another Sunk (AP/Britannica): Tensions flared near the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend as a ship was seized and another was sunk. (FXStreet) This is the most direct evidence yet that the ceasefire is deteriorating on the water even as diplomats negotiate on land. The incidents confirm that no amount of summit language translates into physical safety in the Strait without a formal, verified agreement.

Bond Market Flashing Recession Warning (CNBC/PGIM): With no end in sight to the war and oil prices stuck above $100, bond traders worried about inflation have sold off long-term government debt. The benchmark 10Y Treasury note rose nearly 24 basis points in the past week to end Friday near 4.60%. PGIM Vice Chair Daleep Singh warned: "Just look at the past five years — we've had nothing but supply shock after supply shock, from Covid, to Ukraine, to tariffs, to immigration restrictions, and now Iran. These are overlapping supply-side shocks that suggest we're going to be in a structurally higher inflation environment." (Bloomberg)

Retail Sales Slowing Under Energy Pressure (AP): Retail sales growth slowed in April from March as higher gas costs left less room for non-essentials. (FXStreet) The consumer is starting to crack under the weight of $100+ oil. This is the stagflation data point the Fed cannot ignore — weak growth, rising prices, and a labor market that already showed cracks in the April NFP print.

"Sleepwalking Into Recession" Warning Gains Traction (CNBC): Energy Aspects founder Amrita Sen told CNBC that oil prices have surged more than 50% since the US-Iran conflict began on February 28. She said OPEC's pledged production increases are "largely symbolic" and fall short of replacing lost supply, and that the real story is "when Hormuz reopens, and at what capacity and pace it reopens." (Bloomberg) The structural supply damage is now the dominant macro narrative.

10Y Yield Path Toward 5% — The End Game (CNBC/PGIM): Singh warned that if Treasury yields march toward 5% or above, "it won't be long before the Treasury secretary says I have a toolkit and I'm not afraid to use it" — including shortening debt maturity, aggressive buybacks, and potential financial repression. Singh added: "I personally don't think the bond-vigilante trade will be alive very long" but acknowledged the near-term pressure is real and building. (Bloomberg)

Macro Context

Rates — 10Y at 4.60% Is the Number That Matters Most: The 10Y yield at cycle highs is the single most important data point in today's report. The 10Y Treasury yield influences mortgages, auto loans, credit card rates, and other consumer debt — when it goes up, consumers feel the pinch. (Bloomberg) At 4.60% with oil above $102 and retail sales slowing, the Fed is trapped. Cutting risks fueling inflation. Holding risks a hard landing. The spread widening to +0.51% is a mild steepening signal — the curve is pricing in longer-term inflation, not near-term recession. But the direction is clear.

Energy — $110 Brent Is the Next Psychological Level: Brent at $109.96 is one bad headline away from $110. Energy Aspects expects $80–90 to be the new floor going forward, with higher-for-longer prices reverberating across commodity markets including LNG, chemicals, and fertilizers. (Bloomberg) The war is not just an oil story anymore — it is a structural input cost story across the entire economy.

VIX — Approaching the Fear Threshold: At 18.95 and climbing, VIX is within striking distance of the 20 level that has historically marked the transition from "elevated caution" to "genuine fear-driven selling." A sustained close above 20 changes the entire ETF playbook — it is the signal that institutional money is actively de-risking, not just hedging.

Trade Implications:

Read more

Good Morning Traders. The Beijing summit is wrapping up this morning and the verdict from markets is clear — it was constructive but not decisive. Trump is calling it "fantastic trade deals" and claiming Xi offered to help broker peace with Iran. But the numbers tell the real story: VIX +9.45%, NAS100 futures -1.67%, QQQ pre-market -1.66%, while XLE is green and oil stubbornly holds $100. The market wanted a concrete Chinese commitment to pressure Iran and reopen the Strait. What it got was softer language and a promise to "work behind the scenes." That gap between expectation and delivery is exactly what you're seeing in pre-market right now. There is one genuinely significant development buried in the headlines — Chinese vessels began passing through the Strait following an understanding over Iranian management protocols for passage (Bloomberg), but the broader reopening traders were hoping for has not materialized. Be very careful out there and Happy Trading.

Market Snapshot

Oil & Commodities

WTI (USOIL): 100.88 (-1.13 / -1.11%)

Brent (UKOIL): 109.66 (+3.08 / +2.89%)

Note: A notable and unusual divergence — WTI slipping while Brent surges. This split reflects the complexity of the summit outcome. Chinese vessels passing through the Strait is a WTI-negative signal, but broader global supply disruption keeps Brent elevated. Watch this spread carefully.

Indexes

DXY: 99.239 (+0.370 / +0.37%)

US500: 7,416.8 (-82.0 / -1.09%)

US30: 49,690.7 (-379.3 / -0.76%)

NAS100: 29,107.1 (-495.1 / -1.67%)

VIX: 18.88 (+1.63 / +9.45%)

FX

USD/JPY: 158.49 (+0.110 / +0.07%)

EUR/USD: 1.1624 (-0.00452 / -0.39%)

GBP/USD: 1.3340 (-0.00603 / -0.45%)

USD/CAD: 1.3757 (+0.00368 / +0.27%)

AUD/USD: 0.7143 (-0.00772 / -1.07%)

ETFs

QQQ: 719.79 (+5.08 / +0.71%) | Pre-mkt: 707.86 (-11.93 / -1.66%)

SPY: 748.17 (+5.86 / +0.79%) | Pre-mkt: 739.60 (-8.57 / -1.15%)

XLE: 58.07 (+0.44 / +0.76%) | Pre-mkt: 58.51 (+0.44 / +0.76%)

Treasury Yields

US02Y: 4.06% (+0.05 / +1.17%)

US10Y: 4.54% (+0.06 / +1.36%)

10Y–2Y Spread: +0.48%

Overnight Drivers

Summit Delivers Words, Not Action — Markets Sell the News (CNBC/Euronews): Trump called the summit "fantastic trade deals" but did not elaborate on specifics. The visit resulted in a Chinese offer to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a warning from Beijing about Taiwan, and no major economic breakthroughs — with Trump primarily focused on agriculture, aviation and AI sectors. (Bloomberg) The market priced in a breakthrough. It got a handshake.

Xi Offered to Help — But Didn't Commit (Time/CNBC): Trump told Fox News that Xi said "I would love to be a help, if I can be of any help whatsoever" and that Xi assured him China would not provide military equipment to Iran. "He said he's not going to give military equipment. That's a big statement," Trump said. However, the assurance stopped short of addressing broader questions about Chinese support for Iran, including intelligence sharing, electronics exports, and other support channels. (Bloomberg) The market read this correctly — it's a gesture, not a guarantee.

Chinese Vessels Begin Transiting the Strait (Euronews — Key Development): Chinese vessels began passing through the Strait following an understanding over Iranian management protocols for the passage. (Bloomberg) This is the most significant concrete outcome of the summit and should not be overlooked. It is not a full reopening — but it is proof that China's back-channel influence with Iran is real and operational. If this expands to broader shipping, oil dynamics shift fast.

Taiwan Warning Dominates China's Messaging (CNBC): Xi reserved his sharpest language for Taiwan, stating "Handle it well, the relationship holds; handle it badly, the two countries risk collision or conflict." (Bloomberg) The Taiwan warning is China's price signal — Beijing is telling Washington what it expects in exchange for deeper Iran cooperation. This is the unresolved tension that keeps the summit from being a clean win.

Trade Truce Extended — Rare Earths Key (Euronews/Foreign Policy): In October, Washington agreed to lower tariffs on all Chinese goods, while Beijing agreed to pause its restrictions on rare earths exports. The summit appears aimed at stabilizing the existing truce rather than breaking new ground. (Bloomberg) No dramatic tariff announcements — a maintenance of the status quo, not an expansion.

Macro Context

Rates — The Biggest Red Flag This Morning: 10Y yield jumping to 4.54% (+1.36%) and 2Y to 4.06% (+1.17%) is the most alarming number in today's snapshot. This is not a flight-to-safety bond rally — yields are spiking. The combination of a disappointing summit, oil holding $100, and DXY strengthening above 99 is the market pricing in persistent inflation with no near-term resolution. This is the stagflation signal. A 10Y at 4.54% directly pressures tech valuations — which explains pre-market QQQ -1.66%.

Energy — The WTI/Brent Split Is the Story: WTI -1.11% while Brent +2.89% is an extraordinary divergence that reflects two competing narratives trading simultaneously. Chinese vessels passing through the Strait is a localized WTI-negative signal. But the broader global supply disruption — with the Strait still largely closed to Western shipping — keeps Brent elevated. This spread will compress once a cleaner directional catalyst emerges.

VIX — Fear Is Back: Jumping 9.45% to 18.88 is the market's honest assessment of the summit. The pre-market red across QQQ and SPY while XLE is green is the clearest possible picture of where money is moving — out of growth and into energy defensives. A sustained VIX above 19–20 changes the entire trading environment.

Trade Implications

USD/JPY

Bias: Bearish — MoF Intervention Imminent

Flow: Breaking above 158.49 — the MoF's most closely watched level has now been breached for the first time this cycle.

Zones: Support: 157.80–158.00 | Resistance: 158.50–159.00

Execution: This is a code red situation. The MoF has intervened twice already at this level. With USD/JPY above 158.49 and DXY surging through 99, the conditions for a third intervention are fully in place. Do not be long above 158.50 — the risk of a 200–300 pip drop in under an hour is real and has happened twice this cycle. If you see a sudden sharp reversal on no news, that is intervention. React accordingly.

EUR/USD

Bias: Bearish

Flow: Sliding to 1.1624 (-0.39%) as DXY strengthens above 99 and risk-off flows accelerate.

Zones: Support: 1.1580–1.1600 | Resistance: 1.1660–1.1680

Execution: The break below 1.1700 this week has now extended meaningfully. The next support is 1.1580–1.1600. A DXY sustained above 99 keeps selling pressure on EUR. Watch for any Iran de-escalation signal — that is the only catalyst that reverses this trend quickly.

GBP/USD

Bias: Bearish

Flow: Taking the hardest hit in G10 FX this morning, down 0.45% to 1.3340. GBP has given back significant ground from last week's peak near 1.3620.

Zones: Support: 1.3300–1.3320 | Resistance: 1.3380–1.3400

Execution: The 1.3300 handle is critical. A break below opens the door to 1.3250. GBP is the most vulnerable major to continued risk-off selling and USD strength. Avoid longs until DXY stabilizes.

USD/CAD

Bias: Bullish USD

Flow: Rising to 1.3757 (+0.27%) as both USD strength and oil ambiguity undermine CAD. The pair is now at its highest level since before the peace trade began.

Zones: Support: 1.3720–1.3740 | Resistance: 1.3780–1.3800

Execution: CAD is caught in a losing position — oil's direction is unclear and USD is dominant. The pair is trending higher. A WTI break below $98 could briefly help CAD but the primary driver today is USD strength. Follow DXY.

AUD/USD

Bias: Bearish

Flow: Biggest FX loser this morning at -1.07% to 0.7143. AUD is being hit by risk-off flows, a stronger USD, and the summit disappointment simultaneously.

Zones: Support: 0.7100–0.7120 | Resistance: 0.7170–0.7190

Execution: AUD is the most risk-sensitive G10 currency and today's environment is the opposite of what AUD needs. The 0.7100 level is the next major support. A break below opens the door to 0.7050. Do not fight this selloff without a clear risk-on catalyst.

QQQ

Bias: Bearish Near-Term — Yield Driven

Flow: Closed at 719.79 (+0.71%) on yesterday's optimism but pre-market collapsing to 707.86 (-1.66%) as rising yields and summit disappointment reprice tech.

Zones: Support: 704–707 | Resistance: 713–716

Execution: The pre-market gap lower is the market pricing out yesterday's summit optimism in real time. The 704–707 support zone is being tested before the open. A 10Y yield at 4.54% is a direct headwind for tech valuations — every 10bps of yield increase compresses Nasdaq multiples. If 704 breaks on volume at the open, the next support is 698–700. Manage risk carefully.

SPY

Bias: Bearish Near-Term

Flow: Closed at 748.17 (+0.79%) but pre-market selling hard to 739.60 (-1.15%). The index is giving back multiple days of gains in one pre-market session.

Zones: Support: 736–739 | Resistance: 743–746

Execution: The 739–736 support band is critical on today's open. A hold there keeps the broader weekly uptrend intact. A break below 736 on volume signals a more meaningful correction is underway. Energy stocks will provide an internal offset but broad tech and consumer discretionary selling could overwhelm it.

XLE

Bias: Bullish — The Standout Trade

Flow: Closed at 58.07 (+0.76%) and pre-market continuing higher to 58.51 (+0.76%). XLE is the only green ETF in the room this morning — and by a wide margin.

Zones: Support: 57.50–58.00 | Resistance: 59.00–59.50

Execution: XLE is the cleanest long trade in today's market. The summit delivered no full Strait reopening, Brent is surging, and energy is the only sector with a clear fundamental tailwind. The pre-market bid is confirmation. Buy dips toward 57.50–58.00 support. The next target is 59.00–59.50. The only risk is a surprise Iran ceasefire announcement — which becomes less likely with each passing day.

What to Watch Today

•Chinese Vessel Transits Through the Strait: This is the most important developing story from the summit. If Chinese shipping passage through the Strait expands to broader categories of vessels, oil dynamics shift meaningfully. Watch Reuters and Bloomberg shipping wire headlines throughout the day.

•USD/JPY Above 158.49 — MoF Watch: The pair is in intervention territory right now. Watch for any sudden sharp reversal on no fundamental news — that is the MoF acting. The response could be 200–300 pips in minutes.

•10Y Yield at 4.54%: If this continues higher toward 4.60%, expect additional pressure on QQQ and growth stocks. The yield move is the most underappreciated risk in today's tape.

•Trump's Post-Summit Comments: Trump returns to Washington today. Any comments on what was actually agreed — particularly on Iran and trade — could move markets significantly in either direction.

Bottom Line

The Summit Was a Handshake, Not a Breakthrough: Markets wanted China to commit to pressuring Iran and reopening the Strait. What they got was "we'll work behind the scenes" and a ban on military equipment exports to Iran. That gap is exactly what pre-market red and VIX +9.45% is telling you.

One Buried Headline Changes Everything If It Expands: Chinese vessels transiting the Strait under Iranian management protocols is the most significant concrete outcome of the summit. If this quietly expands over the coming days, oil falls and the trade reverses fast. Keep this on your radar — it could be the most important story nobody is talking about this morning.

Yields Are the Real Threat Today: The 10Y at 4.54% is not being driven by growth optimism — it is being driven by persistent inflation fear and a dollar strengthening above 99. That combination is the definition of stagflation pricing and it is the primary headwind for QQQ and SPY today.

XLE Is the Only Clean Trade: Green pre-market, oil above $100, Brent surging, no full Strait reopening, and a risk-off rotation out of growth — every arrow points the same direction for XLE. It is the standout trade of the morning.

Market data sourced from TradingView. Macro drivers compiled from CNBC, Reuters, Euronews, Time, and CSIS.

Trump heads home today. The Strait is cracking open slightly for Chinese vessels but remains closed to the world. Watch those yield levels and stay close to your screens.

Good Morning Traders. History is being made in Beijing this morning. Trump and Xi are meeting at the Great Hall of the People right now, and the first headlines are already moving markets. Both sides have agreed that the Strait of Hormuz "must remain open to support the free flow of energy," with Xi also making clear China's opposition to militarizing the Strait and any effort to charge tolls for its use. Xi also expressed interest in purchasing more American oil to reduce China's dependence on the Strait in the future. (PR Newswire) That is a meaningful first signal, but critically, the White House official notably did not say whether Xi had agreed to expand China's involvement in actually helping to end the conflict. (PR Newswire) The market is reading this correctly — equities are green, oil is holding but not crashing, VIX is flat. This is cautious optimism, not euphoria. Day two of the summit continues tomorrow. The biggest headlines may still be ahead. Be careful out there and Happy Trading.

Market Snapshot

Oil & Commodities

WTI (USOIL): 100.98 (-0.01 / -0.01%)

Brent (UKOIL): 105.96 (+0.25 / +0.24%)

Note: Oil essentially flat as markets digest the opening summit signals. Both sides agreeing the Strait "must remain open" is positive, but without a concrete Chinese commitment to pressure Iran, the war premium stays embedded above $100.

Indexes

DXY: 98.521 (+0.069 / +0.07%)

US500: 7,463.4 (+12.2 / +0.16%)

US30: 49,957.6 (+156.6 / +0.31%)

NAS100: 29,471.0 (+13.0 / +0.04%)

VIX: 17.87 (-0.01 / -0.06%)

FX

USD/JPY: 157.92 (+0.026 / +0.02%)

EUR/USD: 1.1708 (-0.00056 / -0.05%)

GBP/USD: 1.3512 (-0.00116 / -0.09%)

USD/CAD: 1.3708 (+0.00018 / +0.01%)

AUD/USD: 0.7248 (-0.00102 / -0.14%)

ETFs

QQQ: 714.71 (+7.47 / +1.06%) | Pre-mkt: 716.40 (+1.69 / +0.24%)

SPY: 742.31 (+4.13 / +0.56%) | Pre-mkt: 744.30 (+1.99 / +0.27%)

XLE: 57.63 (+0.06 / +0.10%) | Pre-mkt: 57.57 (-0.06 / -0.10%)

Treasury Yields

US02Y: 3.97% (-0.01 / -0.15%)

US10Y: 4.46% (-0.01 / -0.18%)

10Y–2Y Spread: +0.49%

Overnight Drivers

Trump and Xi Open Beijing Summit — Strait Agreement Reached (CNN/CNBC — Breaking): Xi hailed a "new era" in US-China relations defined by stable ties and managed competition. Trump told Xi the relationship would be "better than ever before." The two leaders agreed the Strait of Hormuz must remain open, with Xi opposing both militarization of the Strait and Iran's toll charges on transiting vessels. (PR Newswire) The delegation included Elon Musk, Tim Cook, Jensen Huang, Pete Hegseth, and Marco Rubio — the heaviest-hitting US business and security lineup in years.

China's Commitment Is Vague — The Key Watch (CNN): Xi expressed interest in purchasing more American oil to reduce China's dependence on the Strait in the future — but the White House did not confirm whether Xi agreed to pressure Iran directly. (PR Newswire) Analysts note that China's strategy gives it more leverage the longer the Strait stays closed — Xi could use the summit to help reopen it, but Trump needs this outcome far more than Xi does. (ADP) This is critical for traders. China will extract maximum concessions before delivering on Iran.

Taiwan Warning Issued (CNN): Xi warned that Taiwan is "the most important issue in China-US relations" and that mishandling it could push the bilateral relationship to a "very dangerous place." (PR Newswire) The Taiwan card is on the table — and it is almost certainly the price China is asking for meaningful Iran pressure. Watch for any Taiwan-related concession language in Friday's closing statements.

CEO Caravan Signals Trade Deals Coming (CNBC): Xi welcomed US business leaders including Musk, Cook, and Huang. Trump told Xi the CEOs came to China to "pay respects" and build business. (DailyForex) The optics signal major trade and investment announcements are being prepared for Day 2. Chinese aircraft purchases from Boeing and agricultural commitments are widely expected.

Macro Context

Rates: 10Y at 4.46% and 2Y at 3.97% — both ticking slightly lower as the summit's opening tone is broadly constructive. The spread widening back to +0.49% is a mild positive signal. Markets are not pricing in a dramatic resolution yet, this is just a reduction in the worst-case escalation risk.

Energy: WTI pinned at $101 tells the whole story. The market wants to sell oil on a China-Iran breakthrough but won't commit until Beijing delivers something concrete on Day 2. The Strait agreement language is a floor, not a ceiling — oil needs a specific Chinese commitment to pressure Tehran before the war premium starts unwinding meaningfully.

VIX: Holding flat at 17.87 — remarkably stable for a morning where a US-China summit is actively underway. This is the market saying "we believe in the process but we're not done yet." A VIX break below 16 would signal genuine confidence that a deal is imminent. Above 20 means the summit has disappointed.

Trade Implications:

USD/JPY

Bias: Watch — MoF Line at 158.00

Flow: Creeping to 157.92 (+0.02%) — now just 8 pips from the MoF's defended 158.00 level. The pair has been grinding higher all week on USD strength and risk-off FX flows.

Zones: Support: 157.40–157.60 | Resistance: 158.00–158.50

Execution: This is the most dangerous single level in FX right now. A summit disappointment on Day 2 spikes the USD and pushes this pair through 158.00 — directly into intervention territory. A breakthrough and oil selloff pulls it back toward 157.00. Do not be long above 157.80 without a stop. The MoF has intervened twice already at this level.

EUR/USD

Bias: Neutral — Waiting for Day 2

Flow: Barely moving at 1.1708 (-0.05%). The Euro is in a holding pattern, unable to recover without a concrete Iran de-escalation signal from Beijing.

Zones: Support: 1.1680–1.1700 | Resistance: 1.1740–1.1760

Execution: The 1.1700 handle is the line. A hold here and positive Day 2 summit outcome sets up a recovery trade toward 1.1760. A break lower targets 1.1660. Best trade here is patience. Wait for Friday's closing statements before committing to direction.

GBP/USD

Bias: Neutral / Slight Bearish Lean

Flow: Slipping to 1.3512 (-0.09%), the weakest major FX pair this week as GBP continues to underperform.

Zones: Support: 1.3480–1.3500 | Resistance: 1.3550–1.3570

Execution: The 1.3500 level continues to hold as critical support. A positive summit Day 2 could recover GBP toward 1.3570. A break below 1.3480 on a disappointed market opens the door to 1.3440. GBP remains the highest-beta risk-off FX pair. It will move the most in either direction on Friday's headlines.

USD/CAD

Bias: Neutral — Coiled for a Move

Flow: Essentially unchanged at 1.3708 (+0.01%). This pair is in the tightest range of the week as oil stability and USD stability cancel each other out perfectly.

Zones: Support: 1.3670–1.3690 | Resistance: 1.3730–1.3750

Execution: The coiled price action is telling you the market is waiting for a catalyst. A positive Beijing outcome sends oil lower and CAD stronger — pair drops toward 1.3600. A disappointment keeps oil elevated and USD bid — pair pushes toward 1.3750. This is a Friday trade, not a today trade.

AUD/USD

Bias: Cautiously Bullish — Summit Setup

Flow: Slightly lower at 0.7248 (-0.14%) but holding above the critical 0.7230 support.

Zones: Support: 0.7220–0.7240 | Resistance: 0.7270–0.7290

Execution: AUD is the clearest beneficiary of a positive summit outcome — risk-on flows plus commodity relief plus China trade optimism all converge on AUD. A long near 0.7230–0.7240 with a stop below 0.7210 offers a favorable risk-reward setup heading into Day 2. Target 0.7290 on a breakthrough.

QQQ

Bias: Strongly Bullish

Flow: Strong close at 714.71 (+1.06%) with pre-market continuing higher to 716.40 (+0.24%). Tech is leading the market higher on summit optimism and yield relief.

Zones: Support: 710–713 | Resistance: 718–722

Execution: QQQ is the clearest expression of summit optimism in the ETF space. Jensen Huang sitting in the room with Trump and Xi is not a coincidence — AI and semiconductor supply chains are on the table. A positive Day 2 on trade and Iran pushes QQQ through 718 resistance toward 722. Hold longs with a stop below 710.

SPY

Bias: Bullish

Flow: Strong close at 742.31 (+0.56%) with pre-market adding to gains at 744.30 (+0.27%). The index is pushing toward new all-time highs.

Zones: Support: 738–740 | Resistance: 745–748

Execution: Broad market participation is healthy — Dow up, S&P up, Nasdaq up. The 745 resistance is the next technical target. A clean Day 2 summit outcome clears it and opens a run toward 748. Hold above 738 keeps the bullish structure fully intact.

XLE

Bias: Neutral — The Summit Swing Trade

Flow: Essentially flat at 57.63 (+0.10%) with pre-market barely moving at 57.57 (-0.10%). XLE is in suspended animation waiting for Beijing to tell it which direction to go.

Zones: Support: 56.80–57.20 | Resistance: 58.50–59.00

Execution: XLE is the most binary trade in the market heading into Day 2. A concrete Chinese commitment to pressure Iran on the Strait = oil drops, XLE sells off hard toward 55.50–56.00. A vague or disappointing outcome = oil holds above $100, XLE grinds back toward 58.50–59.00. Know your thesis before you enter. Today is not the day to guess — tomorrow's closing statement is the entry signal.

What to Watch Today

•Trump-Xi Day 2 (Friday Morning Beijing / Thursday Evening US): The closing joint statement is the most important document in global finance right now. Watch specifically for: any language committing China to pressure Iran, Taiwan concession language, trade deal specifics, and rare earths resolution. Any one of these moves markets significantly.

•Oil Price Action Around $101: WTI holding above $100 with flat movement is the market's "show me" posture. A break below $98 on Day 2 headlines signals the market believes China delivered on Iran. A spike above $103 means it didn't.

•USD/JPY at 157.92: Eight pips from the MoF line. This pair is the real-time risk sentiment gauge. Watch it on every headline.

•VIX 17.87 — The Confidence Barometer: Below 16 = the market believes a deal is coming. Above 20 = the summit has failed to deliver. Everything in between is the wait.

Bottom Line

The Summit Delivered Words, Not Action — Yet: Both sides agreeing the Strait "must remain open" is a constructive first step. But markets need Beijing to deliver something concrete on Iran pressure — and Day 2 is where that either happens or doesn't. Today's flat oil and stable VIX tell you the market is reserving judgment.

China Holds the Cards: Every day the Strait stays closed, China's long-term strategic position grows stronger. Xi could use this summit to help reopen the Strait — but Trump needs this outcome far more than Xi does. (ADP) That leverage means any Chinese commitment will come with a price — likely on Taiwan, tariffs, or rare earths. The closing statement on Friday will reveal what was exchanged.

Two Playbooks Ready for Friday: Positive outcome — buy QQQ, sell oil, sell XLE, buy AUD, watch USD/JPY fall from the MoF line. Disappointing outcome — oil spikes toward $105, XLE surges, QQQ gives back gains, VIX breaks 20. Both setups are live. Know which one you're trading before the headlines hit.

SPY and QQQ Are Telling You the Market Leans Bullish: New highs in SPY pre-market, QQQ near 716 — institutional money is positioned for a positive outcome. That doesn't mean it's guaranteed. It means the pain trade on a disappointment is sharper than the reward on a breakthrough. Manage your risk accordingly.

Market data sourced from TradingView. Macro drivers compiled from CNN, CNBC, Reuters, Bloomberg, and Council on Foreign Relations.

Day 2 of the summit begins tonight US time. The closing statement IS the trade. Stay locked in.

Good Morning Traders. Today is the calm before the storm. Trump lands in Beijing tomorrow for his May 14–15 summit with Xi Jinping, and the entire market is in a holding pattern waiting for signals on the single most important question in global finance right now — can China pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz? The numbers confirm this theory. Oil is holding above $101 but VIX is actually falling. Equities are mixed but not panicking. FX is risk-off but orderly. This is a market that is nervous but not fearful — it is waiting, not selling. Morgan Stanley is warning the oil market is in a "race against time," with the buffers that kept prices from spiking further — strategic reserves, US export surges, slower Chinese imports — starting to come under serious strain if the Strait stays closed into June. (EBC Financial Group) Tomorrow's summit is not just a diplomatic event. For traders, it is the most important binary catalyst of the month. Be careful out there and Happy Trading.

Market Snapshot

Oil & Commodities

WTI (USOIL): 101.51 (-0.53 / -0.52%)

Brent (UKOIL): 107.33 (-0.35 / -0.33%)

Note: Oil consolidating just above $101 after yesterday's 4% gain. The market is holding the war premium steady ahead of the Beijing summit — neither adding nor removing risk premium until Trump and Xi speak.

Indexes

DXY: 98.567 (+0.278 / +0.28%)

US500: 7,421.0 (+25.4 / +0.34%)

US30: 49,654.0 (-118.5 / -0.24%)

NAS100: 29,333.0 (+277.4 / +0.95%)

VIX: 17.87 (-0.11 / -0.61%)

FX

USD/JPY: 157.88 (+0.271 / +0.17%)

EUR/USD: 1.1699 (-0.00406 / -0.35%)

GBP/USD: 1.3510 (-0.00308 / -0.23%)

USD/CAD: 1.3704 (+0.00078 / +0.06%)

AUD/USD: 0.7237 (-0.00029 / -0.04%)

ETFs

QQQ: 707.24 (-6.05 / -0.85%) | Pre-mkt: 713.15 (+5.91 / +0.84%)

SPY: 738.18 (-1.12 / -0.15%) | Pre-mkt: 740.00 (+1.82 / +0.25%)

XLE: 57.57 (+0.40 / +0.70%) | Pre-mkt: 57.26 (-0.31 / -0.54%)

Treasury Yields

US02Y: 3.98% (-0.01 / -0.28%)

US10Y: 4.46% (-0.00 / -0.04%)

10Y–2Y Spread: +0.48%

Overnight Drivers

°Kharg Island — Iran's Main Oil Export Terminal Goes Dark (Bloomberg): Satellite images show no ocean-going tankers at Iran's Kharg Island over the past several days, the first sign of an extended halt at the nation's main export hub since the start of the 10-week war. WTI traded near $102 on Tuesday while Brent closed above $107. (ADP) If Kharg Island remains offline, the global supply picture deteriorates further regardless of the Strait diplomacy.

°Beijing Summit Agenda: Iran Is the Top Priority (CNBC): Nomura's Chief China Economist Ting Lu stated in a note that "the most pressing agenda item is the Iran-Hormuz crisis," describing the summit as more about "avoiding unnecessary escalation and managing risks than building structural mechanisms." (DailyForex) Economists Intelligence Unit's principal China economist noted that both sides will likely reaffirm their shared intention to reopen the Strait — but warned that maritime standoffs and stop-and-go negotiations will likely drag on regardless. (J.P. Morgan) Expect carefully worded joint language, not a dramatic breakthrough.

°China's Leverage Is Real (CNBC/CFR): China holds significant leverage heading into the summit — Beijing is Iran's largest trade partner and the top buyer of its oil. Analysts note this gives China a "positional advantage" as the war drags on far longer than the Trump administration's original four-to-six week prediction. (Vocal Media) Xi can offer Trump a face-saving path to de-escalation — but at a price on tariffs, Taiwan, and rare earths.

°Morgan Stanley: "Race Against Time" on Oil (Bloomberg): Despite losing almost 1 billion barrels of supply since the war began, oil futures have been restrained by strategic reserve releases, higher US exports, and persistent market expectations that the Strait would reopen. Morgan Stanley warns those buffers are now coming under strain — if the closure extends into June, the price shock accelerates significantly. (EBC Financial Group) The summit is not just diplomatic theater. It is a hard deadline for energy markets.

Macro Context

Rates: 10Y yield at 4.46% — barely moving (-0.04%) as the market pauses. The 2Y at 3.98% is also steady. This flatness is deliberate. Bond traders are not making new bets until Beijing speaks. The spread holding at +0.48% keeps the curve from inverting — but stagflation risks keep any rate cut expectations firmly off the table.

Energy: WTI consolidating above $101 with zero tanker activity at Kharg Island is a deeply bearish structural signal for global supply. The market is not panicking only because it believes Beijing can deliver. If the summit disappoints, the next leg in oil has nothing standing in its way. Wall Street analysts and US government officials are beginning to seriously consider the prospect of oil reaching $200 per barrel if the Strait remains closed. A scenario that would trigger a 1970s-style energy shock. (Investing.com)

VIX: Ticking lower to 17.87 (-0.61%) even with oil above $101. This is the single most important data point in the asset list this morning. The market is explicitly pricing in a positive Beijing outcome. This is a bet, not a certainty. If the summit delivers vague language with no concrete Iran commitment, VIX will snap back above 20 fast.

Trade Implications

USD/JPY

Bias: Bullish USD — Intervention Line Imminent

Flow: Creeping higher to 157.88 (+0.17%). The pair is now within 12 pips of the 158.00 MoF line that has triggered intervention twice already.

Zones: Support: 157.20–157.50 | Resistance: 158.00–158.50

Execution: This is the most dangerous level on the board right now. Do not be long above 157.80 without tight stops. A Beijing disappointment spikes USD and pushes this pair directly into MoF intervention territory. A positive summit outcome weakens USD and pulls the pair back toward 157.00–157.20. Either way, the risk/reward on longs here is poor.

EUR/USD

Bias: Bearish Near-Term / Summit Dependent

Flow: Sliding to 1.1699 (-0.35%), breaking below the 1.1700 psychological level for the first time since the peace trade began.

Zones: Support: 1.1660–1.1680 | Resistance: 1.1720–1.1740L

Execution: The break below 1.1700 is a meaningful technical development. A bearish continuation targets 1.1660. However, a positive Beijing Iran signal reverses this quickly back toward 1.1740–1.1760. Hold off on aggressive shorts — the summit risk is too binary.

GBP/USD

Bias: Bearish

Flow: Sliding to 1.3510 (-0.23%), now testing a key technical support level.

Zones: Support: 1.3480–1.3500 | Resistance: 1.3560–1.3580

Execution: The 1.3500 handle is critical. A clean break below targets 1.3450. GBP is the most vulnerable major to risk-off continuation given the UK's significant energy import exposure. Avoid longs until summit clarity emerges.

USD/CAD

Bias: Neutral — Awaiting Summit Catalyst

Flow: Barely changed at 1.3704 (+0.06%). The pair is in a tight hold as oil stability and USD strength offset each other perfectly.

Zones: Support: 1.3670–1.3690 | Resistance: 1.3730–1.3750

Execution: This pair is the clearest "wait for Beijing" trade on the board. A positive summit and oil pullback = CAD strengthens, pair drops toward 1.3600. A disappointing summit and oil spike = pair pushes toward 1.3750+. No edge today — wait for the catalyst.

AUD/USD

Bias: Neutral — Holding Support

Flow: Nearly flat at 0.7237 (-0.04%). AUD is showing resilience relative to EUR and GBP, holding its ground despite risk-off pressure.

Zones: Support: 0.7210–0.7230 | Resistance: 0.7260–0.7280

Execution: AUD's relative stability is a mild positive signal. A Beijing breakthrough could see AUD lead the G10 recovery back toward 0.7280+. A disappointment sends it through 0.7210 support. The risk-reward slightly favors a long setup near 0.7220 with a tight stop, positioned for a positive summit outcome.

QQQ

Bias: Bullish — Pre-Market Confirms Positioning

Flow: Yesterday's close at 707.24 (-0.85%) but pre-market surging to 713.15 (+0.84%). Tech is aggressively pricing in a positive Beijing outcome overnight.

Zones: Support: 707–710 | Resistance: 716–720

Execution: The pre-market gap tells you exactly what institutional money is doing — positioning long ahead of the summit. If Beijing delivers even a mild positive Iran signal, QQQ breaks back above 716 and targets 720. If the summit disappoints, the pre-market gap fills fast and 707 support gets tested. Reward favors the long but size for the binary risk.

SPY

Bias: Bullish — Pre-Market Green

Flow: Closed at 738.18 (-0.15%) but pre-market pushing to 740.00 (+0.25%). The index is holding all-time high territory.

Zones: Support: 735–737 | Resistance: 741–744

Execution: 740 in pre-market is the market telling you it wants to break higher. A clean summit outcome gets SPY through 741 resistance and into the 742–744 range. Hold above 735 on any intraday pullback keeps the bullish structure intact.

XLE

Bias: Bullish with Caution — Summit Is the Swing Factor

Flow: Closed at 57.57 (+0.70%) but pre-market easing slightly to 57.26 (-0.54%). Energy is consolidating as the market waits for Beijing.

Zones: Support: 56.80–57.20 | Resistance: 58.50–59.00

Execution: XLE is in a fascinating position heading into the summit. Oil above $101 and Kharg Island offline keeps the structural bull case intact. But a positive Beijing-Iran signal is the one catalyst that sends XLE sharply lower as the war premium evaporates. This is the highest binary-risk trade in the market. If you're long XLE — know your exit if Iran headlines go positive out of Beijing. If you're waiting to short — a confirmed de-escalation signal is your entry trigger.

What to Watch Today

•Trump Arrives in Beijing Tonight (Wednesday Evening ET): The summit formally begins Thursday morning Beijing time — which is Wednesday evening US time. Watch for pre-summit atmospherics, any joint statement previews, or leaks on the Iran agenda from either delegation.

•Oil Holding Above $101: WTI near $102 and Brent above $107, with no tanker activity at Kharg Island for several days, (ADP) means every hour the Strait stays closed is another hour of structural supply deterioration. The clock Morgan Stanley warned about is ticking.

•USD/JPY at 157.88: Twelve pips from the MoF's defended 158.00 level. Any USD spike on summit disappointment could trigger a third intervention. Watch this pair as a real-time risk sentiment gauge.

•VIX Below 18: The market's confidence in Beijing is built into this number. It is the most vulnerable data point in today's session — any negative pre-summit headline flips this fast.

Bottom Line

The Entire Market Is Betting on Beijing: Falling VIX, green ETF futures, and stable FX despite $101 oil — the market has made its call. It believes China will deliver something meaningful on Iran at the summit. That bet has a payoff tomorrow. Today is about managing your positioning ahead of the binary event.

The Structural Energy Picture Is Deteriorating: Kharg Island going dark is not a headline — it is a supply fact. Every day it remains offline tightens the global energy balance further. Even a positive summit outcome may not reverse oil immediately if the physical supply damage continues to compound.

Two Trades, Two Directions Out of Beijing I see happening: If the summit delivers — buy QQQ, sell XLE, buy EUR/USD, watch USD/JPY drop away from MoF. If it disappoints — oil spikes toward $105+, XLE surges, QQQ fills its pre-market gap, VIX breaks 20. Know both playbooks before the open tomorrow.

USD/JPY Is the Trip Wire: At 157.88 the pair is one bad headline away from triggering MoF intervention for the third time. It is also the clearest real-time indicator of whether the market believes the summit is going well or poorly. Watch it like a hawk.

Market data sourced from TradingView. Macro drivers compiled from Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters, Morgan Stanley research, and Nomura Economics.

Trump lands in Beijing tonight. Position carefully, know both outcomes, and stay close to your screens. Tomorrow is the day.

Good Morning Traders. Two massive macro events are colliding this morning. First, the Iran peace deal is dead and the region is escalating — Iran continued drone attacks on Gulf neighbors over the weekend, with the UAE intercepting 12 ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles and four drones, Qatar condemning a drone strike on a cargo ship in its waters, and Kuwait reporting hostile drones entering its airspace. (YCharts) Oil is back above $100. Second — and this is the wildcard — Trump's Beijing summit with Xi Jinping kicks off Wednesday May 14–15, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has confirmed Iran will be a central topic, with hopes China can pressure Tehran back to the table. (FXStreet) Markets are caught between genuine escalation fear and Beijing summit optimism. The result is exactly what you’d expect, a split tape. Oil and VIX surging, equities mixed, FX decidedly risk-off. Be very careful out there and Happy Trading.

Market Snapshot

Oil & Commodities

WTI (USOIL): 100.97 (+2.73 / +2.78%)

Brent (UKOIL): 107.04 (+2.47 / +2.36%)

Note: WTI reclaiming the psychologically critical $100 level as the Gulf drone campaign widens and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The war premium is fully back.

Indexes

DXY: 98.248 (+0.341 / +0.35%)

US500: 7,388.9 (-20.9 / -0.28%)

US30: 49,653.0 (-62.0 / -0.12%)

NAS100: 29,142.2 (-169.5 / -0.58%)

VIX: 18.91 (+0.54 / +2.94%)

FX

USD/JPY: 157.57 (+0.349 / +0.22%)

EUR/USD: 1.1747 (-0.00348 / -0.30%)

GBP/USD: 1.3542 (-0.00675 / -0.50%)

USD/CAD: 1.3709 (+0.00316 / +0.23%)

AUD/USD: 0.7225 (-0.00244 / -0.34%)

ETFs

QQQ: 713.29 (+2.06 / +0.29%) | Pre-mkt: 708.58 (-4.71 / -0.66%)

SPY: 739.30 (+1.68 / +0.23%) | Pre-mkt: 736.86 (-2.44 / -0.33%)

XLE: 57.17 (+1.47 / +2.64%) | Pre-mkt: 57.68 (+0.51 / +0.89%)

Treasury Yields

US02Y: 3.97% (+0.02 / +0.43%)

US10Y: 4.43% (+0.02 / +0.34%)

10Y–2Y Spread: +0.46%

Overnight Drivers

Iran Widens Gulf Drone Campaign (CNBC/Reuters): WTI futures advanced nearly 5% to $100.30 per barrel and Brent rose 4.92% to $105.76 on Monday as Iran's weekend drone campaign hit multiple Gulf states simultaneously. Iranian Army spokesperson confirmed the attacks were a direct response to the collapse of peace negotiations. (YCharts) The conflict is no longer contained to the US/Iran/Israel it is now a regional Gulf war in all but name.

Iran Creates Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PBS/Reuters): Lloyd's List Intelligence reported that Iran has created the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, an agency positioned to formalize its management of the Strait of Hormuz — including provisions to ban passage for vessels of hostile states and impose tolls on ships transiting the waterway. (CNBC) This is a massive escalation in the legal and structural control of the world's most critical energy choke point. Exxon CEO Darren Woods warned that "the market hasn't seen the full impact yet — there's more to come if the strait remains closed."

Trump-Xi Summit Wednesday — Iran Is the Agenda (CNBC/CSIS): The Iran war is expected to dominate the Beijing summit, with China having already hosted Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi last week, positioning itself as a potential mediator to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. (FXStreet) CSIS analysts note the PRC's eagerness to hold the summit signals it is less confident than many believe, and China's role in pressuring Iran may be the single most important diplomatic variable of the week. A positive signal from Beijing could reverse today's risk-off move entirely.

Kharg Island Oil Spill (PBS/AP): Satellite images show what appears to be an oil slick of roughly 95 square kilometers emanating from Kharg Island, Iran's primary crude export terminal, spreading southwest at approximately 2 kilometers per hour toward ecologically sensitive Gulf waters. (CNBC) The environmental and supply-side implications are compounding the energy shock.

Macro Context

•Rates: Both 2Y and 10Y yields are ticking higher — 2Y at 3.97% (+0.43%), 10Y at 4.43% (+0.34%). Oil above $100 reignites inflation fears and puts the Fed back in an impossible position. Cut rates and risk fueling inflation. Hold rates and risk crushing a softening labor market. The stagflation trap is back and tighter than ever.

•Energy: WTI crossing $100 is not just a price level — it is a psychological and structural signal. Oil has stayed highly sensitive to headlines, with markets caught between hopes of de-escalation and the risk that sporadic clashes keep an energy risk premium embedded in FX and rates, (YCharts) according to OCBC's currency strategist. The creation of Iran's Strait Authority is a structural escalation that cannot be priced out easily — this is no longer a temporary disruption.

•VIX: Pushing toward 19 at 18.91 (+2.94%). The split tape — XLE and oil up, QQQ and SPY pre-market red — tells you the market is in genuine rotation mode, not a clean risk-off flush. Energy bulls are back. Growth investors are nervous. Watch for VIX breaking 20 as the key signal that fear has fully re-entered.

Trade Implications:

Read more

Good Morning Traders. The peace trade is officially dead — at least for now. Over the weekend, President Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal to end the war, calling it "totally unacceptable" on Truth Social, while Tehran vowed it would "never bow," prolonging the standoff that has kept the Strait of Hormuz choked and global energy markets on edge. (J.P. Morgan) Compounding the breakdown, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared on CBS's 60 Minutes that the war with Iran is "not over," stating there is still enriched uranium that must be removed and enrichment sites that must be dismantled. (House of Commons Library) Markets are responding with a clear risk-off tone — oil is surging back, yields are rising, VIX is climbing, and FX pairs are reversing the peace-trade gains from last week. Futures are mixed, with tech holding a thin bid but energy and defensives repricing fast. Be careful out there and Happy Trading.

Market Snapshot

Oil & Commodities

WTI: 94.565 (+3.080 / +3.37%)

Brent: 107.15 (+2.99 / +2.87%)

Note: Oil surging back as the war premium is re-injected into the market following Trump's rejection of Iran's peace proposal and Netanyahu's hawkish weekend comments.

Indexes

DXY: 97.996 (+0.154 / +0.16%)

US500: 7,395.1 (-0.9 / -0.01%)

US30: 49,598.0 (-47.4 / -0.10%)

NAS100: 29,256.6 (+15.6 / +0.05%)

VIX: 18.08 (+0.90 / +5.24%)

FX

USD/JPY: 157.09 (+0.412 / +0.26%)

EUR/USD: 1.1765 (-0.00198 / -0.17%)

GBP/USD: 1.3595 (-0.00347 / -0.27%)

USD/CAD: 1.3668 (-0.00080 / -0.06%)

AUD/USD: 0.7236 (-0.00108 / -0.15%)

ETFs

QQQ: 711.23 (+16.29 / +2.34%) | Pre-mkt: 711.30 (+0.07 / +0.01%)

SPY: 737.62 (+6.04 / +0.83%) | Pre-mkt: 737.36 (-0.26 / -0.04%)

XLE: 55.70 (-0.25 / -0.45%) | Pre-mkt: 56.31 (+0.61 / +1.09%)

Treasury Yields

US02Y: 3.92% (+0.03 / +0.80%)

US10Y: 4.39% (+0.03 / +0.60%)

10Y–2Y Spread: +0.47%

Overnight Drivers

•Trump Rejects Iran's Counteroffer (CNBC/Bloomberg): Trump posted on Truth Social "I have just read the response from Iran's so-called Representatives. I don't like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!" while oil immediately surged — WTI futures with June delivery advanced over 3% to $95.42 and Brent rose 3.16% to $104.49 per barrel on the news. (CNBC) The peace dividend that drove markets higher all of last week is now being fully repriced.

•Netanyahu: "The War Is Not Over" (CNBC): Netanyahu told CBS's 60 Minutes that Iran still has nuclear material, enriched uranium, and enrichment sites that must be dismantled, and ballistic missiles they still want to produce. When pressed on how the US and Israel would remove nuclear material, Netanyahu said simply: "You go in and you take it out." (House of Commons Library) Markets read this as a green light for continued or escalating military action.

•Ceasefire Increasingly Fragile (CNBC): Market analysts warned over the weekend that a complete collapse of the already tentative US-Iran ceasefire is looking increasingly likely, with BlackRock's chief investment strategist for APAC calling it "an incredibly delicate moment." (EBC Financial Group) The key question for this week is whether geopolitical risks remain messy but contained — or break through to weigh on markets and corporate earnings.

•Trump's China Trip Still On (CNBC): Trump's Beijing summit with Xi Jinping remains scheduled for May 14–15. Boeing and Citigroup CEOs are set to join the delegation. The trip creates competing headline risk — any trade optimism from China could partially offset the Iran risk-off, making for a complex and volatile week.

Macro Context

Rates: Both 2Y and 10Y yields are ticking higher this morning — 2Y at 3.92% (+0.80%), 10Y at 4.39% (+0.60%). The re-emergence of the war premium is pushing energy inflation fears back to the surface, which directly limits the Fed's ability to cut. The stagflation narrative — sticky inflation from oil, softening labor from last week's weak NFP — is back with full force.

Energy: WTI reclaiming $94 and Brent pushing toward $108 tells the whole story. The week-long decline driven by peace optimism has been fully erased in one weekend. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed and with both Trump and Netanyahu signaling the conflict is far from resolved, the $90 floor is back in play as support, not resistance.

VIX: Jumping 5.24% to 18.08 this morning. This is the market finally pricing in what the geopolitical reality has been telling us all week — the deal was never done. A continued climb above 20 would signal a genuine shift from cautious optimism to fear-driven positioning.

Trade Implications:

Read more

Good Friday Morning Traders, we made it. Overnight the geopolitical picture got significantly more complicated. US forces struck Iranian military facilities responsible for "unprovoked" missile, drone, and small boat attacks against American warships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded with reciprocal strikes against US naval vessels east of the strait. (Investing.com) The ceasefire is hanging by a thread. Despite the fresh exchange of fire, markets are remarkably resilient — ETF futures are green, oil has pulled back from overnight highs, and the peace trade is still being bid. The reason: Brent crude surged as much as 7.5% during the volatile Thursday session before easing as Asia opened Friday morning. (ADP) The market wants a deal. Whether it gets one is the question of the day. And then at 8:30 AM — NFP drops. Strap in. Be careful out there and Happy Trading.

Market Snapshot

Oil & Commodities

WTI: 92.165 (-2.110 / -2.24%)

Brent: 104.61 (-2.44 / -2.28%)

Note: Oil pulling back from Thursday's spike highs after Iran-US exchange of fire. The market is choosing to focus on diplomacy over escalation… for now.

Indexes

DXY: 97.940 (-0.318 / -0.32%)

US500: 7,368.1 (+41.2 / +0.56%)

US30: 49,700.9 (+168.4 / +0.34%)

NAS100: 28,750.0 (+201.4 / +0.71%)

VIX: 17.14 (+0.07 / +0.41%)

FX

USD/JPY: 156.69 (-0.243 / -0.15%)

EUR/USD: 1.1767 (+0.00433 / +0.37%)

GBP/USD: 1.3613 (+0.00628 / +0.46%)

USD/CAD: 1.3647 (-0.00176 / -0.13%)

AUD/USD: 0.7231 (+0.00250 / +0.35%)

ETFs

QQQ: 694.94 (-0.83 / -0.12%) | Pre-mkt: 698.98 (+4.04/ +0.58%)

SPY: 731.58 (-2.25 / -0.31%) | Pre-mkt: 734.45 (+2.87/ +0.39%)

XLE: 55.95 (-1.05 / -1.84%) | Pre-mkt: 55.91 (-0.04/-0.07%)

Treasury Yields

US02Y: 3.90% (-0.01 / -0.36%)

US10Y: 4.37% (-0.01 / -0.32%)

10Y–2Y Spread: +0.47%

Overnight Drivers

•US-Iran Exchange of Fire — Ceasefire on the Brink (CNN): US CENTCOM confirmed it intercepted unprovoked Iranian attacks and responded with self-defense strikes targeting Iranian missile and drone launch sites, command and control locations, and ISR nodes as US Navy guided-missile destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz. (Investing.com) Trump called it a "love tap" and insisted the ceasefire is still in effect — but Iran's armed forces declared the ceasefire broken.

•Iran's Formal Peace Response Still Pending (Polymarket): Despite the overnight clashes, Iran confirmed receipt of the latest US proposal and China's Wang Yi met with Iran's Foreign Minister in Beijing, hinting at broader international backing for a deal. (ADP) Diplomacy and military action are running on parallel tracks simultaneously — the most dangerous market environment possible.

•Trump's China Trip Deadline Looming (Polymarket): Trump's Beijing summit with Xi Jinping is scheduled for May 14–15, and traders currently price an 84.5% chance that no peace deal is reached before that trip (FXStreet) — creating a six-day diplomatic window that is rapidly closing. Trump has publicly said he wants a deal before China. That pressure cuts both ways.

•NFP Drops at 8:30 AM ET — Consensus 62K–65K: Consensus estimates suggest payrolls rose 62K in April, down sharply from the 178K addition in March, consistent with weekly jobless claims data signaling slight deterioration in net hiring. (House of Commons Library) The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3% while average hourly earnings are forecast to climb 0.3% month-over-month — keeping the Fed's stagflation dilemma squarely in focus. (Washington Times)

•UAE Under Drone and Missile Attack (Euronews): The UAE reported a fresh missile and drone attack from Iran hours after the US thwarted attacks on three Navy ships in the Strait (Polymarket) , widening the conflict beyond a US-Iran confrontation. Regional escalation risk is real and growing.

Macro Context

Rates: 10Y holding at 4.37%, 2Y at 3.90%. Spread narrowing slightly to +0.47%. Yields are stable but NFP at 8:30 will move this market fast. A soft print accelerates the drop. A beat puts rate-hike bets back on the table — the Fed is already the most divided it has been in 34 years.

Energy: Oil is telling a nuanced story this morning. WTI at $92 is down from Thursday's spike but well off the recent lows. The market is pricing continued diplomacy while keeping a war premium in place. The overnight military exchange is a reminder that the $88–90 floor trade has real downside risk if things escalate. Don't get too aggressive on the short side with live bullets being fired.

VIX: Holding at 17.14 — elevated but not panicking. Green futures alongside a VIX above 17 with live military action is the market saying it still believes in the deal. If VIX starts climbing above 19–20 on open, that narrative is changing.

Trade Implications:

Read more

Good Morning Traders. The peace trade is still very much alive this morning, though the optimism is more measured than yesterday's euphoria. Iran is expected to hand its formal reply to Pakistani mediators today regarding the US 14-point peace proposal, and Trump stated the US has had "very good talks" over the past 24 hours. (YCharts) Markets are bidding peace cautiously — ETF futures are green, FX is holding gains, but oil continues to slide and VIX remains elevated, telling us traders

are not fully convinced yet. The headline risk today is massive in both directions. Be careful out there and Happy Trading.

Market Snapshot

Oil & Commodities

WTI: 90.405 (-2.670 / -2.87%)

Brent: 102.94 (-3.17 / -2.99%)

° Note: Oil extending its two-day slide as the market continues to price out the war premium. WTI now below $91 — a level not seen since before the conflict began.

Indexes

DXY: 97.888 (-0.128 / -0.13%)

US500: 7,367.6 (+7.5 / +0.10%)

US30: 49,918.5 (+13.0 / +0.03%)

NAS100: 28,640.4 (+26.6 / +0.09%)

VIX: 17.52 (+0.12 / +0.69%)

FX

USD/JPY: 156.38 (+0.017 / +0.01%)

EUR/USD: 1.1768 (+0.00199 / +0.17%)

GBP/USD: 1.3617 (+0.00239 / +0.18%)

USD/CAD: 1.3625 (-0.00080 / -0.06%)

AUD/USD: 0.7259 (+0.00219 / +0.30%)

ETFs

QQQ: 695.77 (+14.16 / +2.08%)>Pre-mkt: 696.06 (+0.29 / +0.04%)

SPY: 733.83 (+10.06 / +1.39%)>Pre-mkt: 734.43 (+0.60 / +0.08%)

XLE: 57.00 (-2.45 / -4.12%)>Pre-mkt: 56.41 (-0.59 / -1.04%)

Treasury Yields

US02Y: 3.85% (-0.02 / -0.54%)

US10Y: 4.34% (-0.01 / -0.32%)

10Y–2Y Spread: +0.49%

Overnight Drivers

US-Iran Peace Negotiations Advancing (CNN/Axios): A 14-point memorandum of understanding is being negotiated between Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and Iranian officials, both directly and through Pakistani mediators. The MOU would declare an end to the war and open a 30-day window for detailed negotiations on the Strait, Iran's nuclear program, and US sanctions relief. (Washington Times) Tehran's formal response is due today — this is the single biggest binary risk event in the market right now.

Trump's Dual Message (CNBC): Trump told reporters "we've had very good talks over the last 24 hours and it's very possible we'll make a deal," while simultaneously warning that "if it doesn't end, we have to go back to bombing the hell out of them." (CNBC) The carrot and stick are both on the table, keeping volatility elevated.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions Linger (CNBC): The US military disabled an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to sail toward an Iranian port in violation of the ongoing US naval blockade, firing several rounds from a cannon gun. (Polymarket) The ceasefire remains fragile and active on the water even as diplomats negotiate on land.

Friday NFP on Deck: Yesterday's soft ADP print of 109K — well below the prior month's 178K — has set a cautious tone heading into Friday's official Nonfarm Payrolls report. A weak number would accelerate yield declines and add further pressure on the USD. Consensus is watching for signs the labor market is softening under the weight of high energy costs and war uncertainty.

Macro Context

Rates: Treasury yields continue to ease — 10Y at 4.34%, 2Y at 3.85%. The spread holding at +0.49% confirms the curve is not in panic mode but the direction is clearly dovish. Lower yields are a direct tailwind for QQQ and growth stocks.

Energy: WTI breaking below $91 is a significant technical development. Two consecutive days of heavy selling confirm the war premium is being aggressively unwound. However, the Strait remains closed and the ceasefire is fragile — any breakdown in today's talks could send crude violently higher. Do not get complacent on the short oil trade.

VIX: Ticking back up to 17.52 this morning despite green futures. This divergence is the market telling you something — equities want to rally but fear has not been fully priced out. Iran's response today will determine which way this resolves.

Trade Implications:

Read more

POTENTIAL PEACE!!!

That's the headlines from overnight reports.

Good Morning Traders. Overnight breaking news about a potential peace between the US and Iran has fueled a huge risk-on environment for financial markets. Investors are optimistic about this report of a document said to exist concerning a proposed peace deal. As a result of these reports, ETF futures are higher and gaining. The dollar has slipped below the 98.00 handle signalling an easing in haven demand. Also Treasury yeilds have eased a bit also signalling an easing of stagflation concerns. It’s shaping up to be a potentially good day. Be careful out there and Happy Trading.

Market Snapshot

Oil & Commodities

• WTI: 95.845 (-5.47%)

• Brent: 101.44 (-4.22%)

• Note: Oil prices tumbled following reports that the U.S. and Iran are closing in on a peace agreement to end hostilities.

Indexes

• DXY: 97.876 (-0.54%)

• US500: 7,301.1 (+1.03%)

• US30: 49,603.5 (+1.05%)

• NAS100: 28,349.8 (+1.85%)

• VIX: 15.93 (-10.0%)

FX

• USD/JPY: 156.32 (-0.79%)

• EUR/USD: 1.1764 (+0.65%)

• GBP/USD: 1.3619 (+0.56%)

• USD/CAD: 1.3547 (-0.50%)

• AUD/USD: 0.7223 (+0.87%)

ETFs

• QQQ: 672.88 (-0.19%) | Pre-mkt: 686.03 (+1.95%)

• SPY: 718.01 (-0.37%) | Pre-mkt: 726.05 (+1.12%)

• XLE: 59.39 (+0.92%) | Pre-mkt: 57.54 (-3.11%)

Treasury Yields

• US02Y: 3.86% (-2.03%)

• US10Y: 4.35% (-1.81%)

• 10Y–2Y Spread: +0.49%

Overnight Drivers

• U.S.-Iran Peace Progress (Reuters/Axios): Reports suggest the U.S. and Iran are nearing a "one-page memo" agreement to end the war. While unverified, the news sent Brent crude tumbling and pushed global bond yields lower as the threat of an energy supply shock recedes.

• Suspected Yen Intervention (Nikkei/Bloomberg): You called it, Tank. USD/JPY saw a sharp, aggressive drop from nearly 157.90 down to 155.09 during the Asian session. While the Ministry of Finance has not confirmed, the timing and magnitude (over 250 pips in an hour) suggest another round of intervention occurred in thin early-morning liquidity.

• Tech Sector Surge (Reuters/Morningstar): Unrelenting optimism around AI, combined with strong earnings from AMD, has sent the Nasdaq to fresh record highs. The easing of geopolitical risk is acting as a "green light" for growth investors.

• ADP Employment Change (Forex Factory): Markets are awaiting the ADP private payrolls data (8:15 AM ET) today as a precursor to Friday's NFP.

Macro Context

• Rates: The 10Y yield has retraced to 4.35%, providing significant relief for equity valuations. The "bear steepening" trend is pausing as safe-haven demand for bonds returns on the back of peace hopes.

• Energy: WTI has dropped below $96, a major technical shift. The permanent "blockade premium" is being priced out as the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz fully reopening becomes realistic.

• VIX: Volatility has crashed 10% to 15.93, its lowest level since the "April Recovery" began, signaling a massive shift in trader sentiment from fear to greed.

Trade Implications

USD/JPY

• Bias: Bearish / Volatile

• Flow: Drastic drop to 155.09 followed by a partial recovery to 156.32.

• Zones: Support: 154.50–155.00 | Resistance: 157.00–157.50.

• Execution: High risk. The MoF is clearly defending the 158.00 level; watch for follow-through selling if peace news continues to weigh on the USD.

EUR/USD

• Bias: Bullish

• Flow: Surging to 1.1764 as the USD slides and energy costs for Europe are expected to plummet.

• Zones: Support: 1.1700–1.1720 | Resistance: 1.1810–1.1830.

• Execution: Buy the breakout; the removal of the energy security threat is a massive tailwind for the Euro.

GBP/USD

• Bias: Bullish

• Flow: Benefiting from broad USD weakness, climbing to 1.3619.

• Zones: Support: 1.3560–1.3580 | Resistance: 1.3680–1.3700.

• Execution: Momentum is with the bulls as psychological pivots are cleared.

USD/CAD

• Bias: Bearish

• Flow: Sliding to 1.3547 despite falling oil, as the broader DXY sell-off is the primary driver.

• Zones: Support: 1.3500–1.3520 | Resistance: 1.3600–1.3620.

• Execution: Watch the 1.3500 handle; CAD strength may be limited if oil continues its sharp decline.

AUD/USD

• Bias: Bullish

• Flow: The top performer, up 0.87% to 0.7223, as the RBA's hawkish stance meets a "risk-on" environment.

• Zones: Support: 0.7180–0.7200 | Resistance: 0.7260–0.7280.

• Execution: Continue to favor AUD on dips as it leads the G10 recovery.

QQQ

• Bias: Strongly Bullish

• Flow: Massive pre-market gap to 686.03 (+1.95%).

• Zones: Support: 678–681 | Resistance: 690–693.

• Execution: Tech is the primary beneficiary of falling yields and peace hopes.

SPY

• Bias: Bullish

• Flow: Gapping up to 726.05 as indexes hit new all-time highs.

• Zones: Support: 718–721 | Resistance: 730–733.

• Execution: Broad-based participation as recession fears from high energy costs dissipate.

What to Watch Today

• ADP Employment Change (8:15 AM ET): Forecast is 165K; any weakness could accelerate the drop in yields.

• EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 AM ET): Critical to see if the drop in WTI is matched by an inventory build.

• Iran Peace Confirmation: Any official statement from the White House or Tehran could trigger another massive leg in the rally.

Bottom Line

• Peace Dividend: The potential end to the Strait of Hormuz conflict is a "black swan" event for the bulls, potentially ending the 2026 stagflation narrative.

• USD Retreat: Between suspected Yen intervention and a general "risk-on" flight from safe-havens, the Greenback's crown is slipping.

• Energy Crash: Energy bulls are being forced into a massive liquidation as the geopolitical floor beneath oil vanishes.

Market data compiled from Reuters, Bloomberg, and FXStreet.

Good Morning Traders. ETf Futures are higher this morning pre market due to investors optimism ahead of the US economic reports due later today. Generally, since the war has started the US economy has been fairly resilient and that resiliency has given investors hope for favorable reports today. The war has not impacted the US economy like it has other country's economies, but be cautious ahead of the reports. Surprises can happen. I am paying close attention to the effect these reports are having on the US dollar and how it pertains to the Japanese yen. Historically, the BoJ has intervened in clusters punishing dip buyers. If the prints push the dollar higher, watch the BoJ and yen for further action.

Good luck out there and Happy Trading.

Market Snapshot

Oil & Commodities

• WTI: 101.395 (-0.71%)

• Brent: 117.76 (-0.93%)

• Note: Prices briefly rocketed above $115 (Brent) and $107 (WTI) Monday during active exchanges of fire in the Gulf.

Indexes

• DXY: 98.484 (+0.01%)

• US500: 7,226.9 (+0.4%)

• US30: 49,089.5 (+0.27%)

• NAS100: 27,835.4 (+0.67%)

• VIX: 17.70 (-3.17%)

FX

• USD/JPY: 157.57 (+0.21%)

• EUR/USD: 1.1689 (-0.02%)

• GBP/USD: 1.3543 (+0.08%)

• USD/CAD: 1.3615 (-0.06%)

• AUD/USD: 0.7161 (-0.07%)

ETFs

• QQQ: 672.88 (-0.19%) | Pre-mkt: 676.55 (+0.55%)

• SPY: 718.01 (-0.37%) | Pre-mkt: 720.50 (+0.35%)

• XLE: 59.39 (+0.92%) | Pre-mkt: 59.39 (0.00%)

Treasury Yields

• US02Y: 3.94% (-0.15%)

• US10Y: 4.43% (-0.05%)

• 10Y–2Y Spread: +0.49%

Overnight Drivers

• Hormuz Escalation (Reuters/Saxo Bank): Crude prices saw massive intraday swings Monday as the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire during the initial escort mission. A UAE oil terminal at Fujairah was struck by an Iranian drone, sparking a fire and briefly pushing Brent toward contract highs.

• ISM Services PMI Expectations (Bloomberg/FXStreet): The market's main event today is the ISM Services PMI (10:00 AM ET). After Monday's NY Fed activity index fell to -14.00, traders are watching to see if the services sector shows the same "stagflationary" price spikes seen in manufacturing.

• RBA Rate Decision (Reuters): The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash policy rate by 25 bps to 4.35% overnight, citing renewed inflation pressures. This has added to the global "higher-for-longer" narrative, keeping pressure on non-yielding assets.

• Yen "Intervention Cat-and-Mouse" (Nikkei/Mitrade): USD/JPY remains volatile following a suspected $35B (5.48 trillion JPY) intervention last week. Despite Finance Minister Katayama's warnings of "decisive action," the pair is drifting back toward 157.57 as the 4.43% US 10Y yield continues to pull capital toward the Greenback.

Macro Context

• Rates: The 10Y yield reached its highest daily close since last July at 4.44% on Monday. The market is now eying the psychological 4.50% level as a potential ceiling that could trigger further equity rotation.

• Energy: While Brent has settled back slightly early Tuesday, the structure remains bullish above $113. The "blockade premium" is being reinforced by active military engagement rather than just threats.

• VIX: Volatility dropped slightly to 17.70 (-3.17%) in the last session, but remains elevated compared to last month, signaling a permanent increase in geopolitical hedging demand.

Trade Implications:

Read more

Happy Star Wars Day Everyone!. May the Fourth be with you all. I hope you all had a great weekend. This week is starting off with mixed sentiments concerning the Strait of Hormuz. The US Navy is set to help neutral ships navigate the Strait. The markets reacted negatively to this news as it was see as a bit of a risky move. Stock futures are mixed as well. Generally due to investors not knowing what to make if these developments. On the one hand ships could start to move through the Strait. On the other, the US Navy’s involvement in these types of operations could be see as a violation of the cease fire and generally taken as an act of aggression on the part of the US. These are tricky waters to navigate politically speaking (pun intended). Good luck out there. Happy Trading and May the Fourth be with you!

Market Snapshot:

Oil

• WTI: 102.355 (+3.11%)

• Brent: 117.72 (+2.93%)

Indexes

• DXY: 98.411 (+0.2%)

• US500: 7,192.5 (-0.37%)

• US30: 49,152.0 (-0.61%)

• NAS100: 27,581.6 (-0.37%)

• VIX: 18.53 (+9.13%)

FX

• USD/JPY: 157.10 (+0.01%)

• EUR/USD: 1.1697 (-0.2%)

• GBP/USD: 1.3533 (-0.31%)

• USD/CAD: 1.3614 (+0.15%)

• AUD/USD: 0.7175 (-0.38%)

ETFs

• QQQ: 674.15 (+0.96%) | Pre-mkt: 670.47 (-0.55%)

• SPY: 720.65 (+0.28%) | Pre-mkt: 717.15 (-0.49%)

• XLE: 58.85 (-1.34%) | Pre-mkt: 59.22 (+0.63%)

Treasury Yields

• 2Y: 3.93%

• 10Y: 4.41%

• 10Y–2Y: +0.48%

Overnight Drivers

• Hormuz Extraction Operation (Reuters/Bloomberg): Market volatility spiked early Monday as the U.S. launched a coordinated effort to guide commercial vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz. While intended to ease the impasse, Brent jumped over $2 to $117.72 as traders weigh the risk of direct naval engagement versus a supply relief.

• Yen Intervention Confirmation (Nikkei/FXStreet): Following the massive move on April 30, internal sources have confirmed the Ministry of Finance stepped in near the 160.70 level. USD/JPY has since stabilized at 157.10, but analysts warn the intervention effect is fading as the BoJ lacks a concrete path for rate hikes to support the currency.

• Fed "Hawkish Hold" Fallout (Bloomberg): Markets are still digesting last week's FOMC meeting, which delivered an 8-4 vote to hold rates. The high number of dissents and the removal of "easing bias" language from the statement have officially priced out rate cuts for the remainder of 2026.

• Golden Week Liquidity (Reuters): Trading volumes in Asia are thin with Japanese and mainland Chinese markets closed for holidays. This thin liquidity contributed to choppy price action in the AUD and NZD as European traders moved back into the USD.

• Tech Divergence (Morningstar): Despite the NAS100 hitting record highs on Friday led by Apple, pre-market futures are red (-0.55%). Investors are rotating out of high-multiple AI names as the 10Y Treasury yield climbs back toward 4.41%.

Macro Context

• Rates: The yield curve continues to "bear steepen." With the 10Y at 4.41%, the cost of capital is beginning to squeeze mid-cap valuations, even as the "Mag 7" maintain strong balance sheets.

• FX: The USD is regaining its crown. DXY at 98.411 reflects a combination of safe-haven demand (Middle East) and the reality that US rates will stay above 3.5% through year-end.

• Energy: WTI is showing aggressive strength (+3.11%). The "Strait of Hormuz" premium is no longer a temporary spike; it is becoming a permanent fixture in global manufacturing costs.

• Equities: The VIX jumped 9.13% overnight. The "April Recovery" is being tested by geopolitical reality and a Federal Reserve that has turned its back on the "pivot" narrative.

Trade Implications:

Read more

Good Morning Traders. Hope everyone has had a good week. It's Friday so that means we made it. This week has been full of surprises and it's had its ups and downs. Japan had all but admitted that they intervened in the yen causing the yen to serge over 2% in a matter of minutes. Powell has said he isn't going anywhe…

Read more

Good Morning Traders. We are almost through another week. Only one more trading day left this week. I don't know about all of you, but I am exhausted. There has been so much data to sift through I don't know where to begin. MAGS earnings came in after hours with mixed results. Those mixed results are weighing on the NASDAQ today. the Bank of Japan might be getting ready to pull the trigger on intervention (according to MoF officials). The Bank of England is set to hold their interest rate decision meeting today. There is still a lot to come. Be careful out there and Happy Trading.

Market Snapshot:

Oil

WTI: 103.72 (+1.83%)

Brent: 111.46 (+0.92%)

Indexes

DXY: 99.155 (+0.32%)

US500: 7,052.5 (-0.98%)

US30: 48,912.0 (-0.49%)

NAS100: 26,740.5 (-1.11%)

VIX: 22.45 (+24.58%)

FX

USD/JPY: 159.36 (+0.25%)

EUR/USD: 1.1641 (-0.43%)

GBP/USD: 1.3508 (+0.16%)

USD/CAD: 1.3745 (+0.36%)

AUD/USD: 0.7085 (-0.70%)

ETFs

QQQ: 649.80 (-1.46% Pre-mkt)

SPY: 701.25 (-1.08% Pre-mkt)

XLE: 61.40 (+7.68% Pre-mkt)

Treasury Yields

2Y: 3.92%

10Y: 4.48%

10Y–2Y: +0.56%

Overnight Drivers

°Katayama Intervention Warning (Reuters): Japan's Finance Minister Katayama issued a direct warning overnight, stating the "timing for decisive action is near" as USD/JPY continues to hover near the 160.00 threshold. Authorities confirmed they are moving closer to stepping into the FX markets to curb the Yen's weakness.

°Powell’s Governor Tenure (Reuters/Bloomberg): Following Wednesday's "hawkish hold" at 3.75%, Jerome Powell confirmed he will remain on the Fed Board of Governors through 2028. This move is seen as a strategic play to maintain institutional stability and a "higher-for-longer" stance amidst the ongoing energy crisis.

°Hormuz Impasse & Crude Hold (Bloomberg/WAFA): Brent remains bid above $111 as President Trump warned the naval blockade of Iranian ports is indefinite. With 95% of traffic through the Strait restricted, the market is pricing in a structural supply shock that replaces the previous "de-escalation" hope.

°Mag 7 Capex Anxiety (Morningstar): Despite strong revenue from MSFT and META, the NAS100 slid 1.11% as investors focus on the $650B+ AI infrastructure spend being cannibalized by soaring energy costs and a 4.48% 10Y yield.

°China's African Trade Pivot (SMM): Beijing officially launched its zero-tariff policy for 20 African nations to secure resource supply lines, a direct move to bypass Middle Eastern maritime instability and maintain manufacturing competitiveness.

Macro Context

Rates: The yield curve is in a violent "bear steepening" phase with the 10Y at 4.48%. Powell's persistence on the board signals that the Fed will likely disregard political pressure for cuts through late 2026.

FX: The USD is the dominant safe haven. EUR/USD at 1.1641 reflects the extreme energy import tax being levied on the Eurozone economy.

Energy: WTI is establishing a firm floor at $103.72. The "Dual Blockade" has turned the $100 psychological level into a fundamental support zone.

Equities: NAS100 is facing a liquidity drain as the 10Y yield hits 4.48%. Tech valuations are being stress-tested by the highest energy costs in years.

Trade Implications:

Read more

Not much of a preamble today. Today is going to be a little crazy. Be careful out there and Happy Trading.

Market Snapshot

Oil

WTI: 101.73 (+1.80%)

Brent: 113.44 (+1.96%)

Indexes

DXY: 98.835 (+0.04%)

US500: 7,122.5 (+0.16%)

US30: 49,152.0 (+0.01%)

NAS100: 27,040.5 (+0.22%)

VIX: 18.02 (Down from 19.38)

FX

USD/JPY: 159.79 (+0.14%)

EUR/USD: 1.1691 (+0.04%)

GBP/USD: 1.3486 (+0.04%)

USD/CAD: 1.3695 (+0.03%)

AUD/USD: 0.7135 (+0.05%)

ETFs

QQQ: 659.40 (+0.76% Pre-mkt)

SPY: 708.95 (+0.07% Pre-mkt)

XLE: 57.02 (+0.09% Pre-mkt)

Treasury Yields

2Y: 3.81%

10Y: 4.37%

10Y–2Y: +0.56%

Overnight Drivers

•FOMC Decision Day (Reuters/Bloomberg): The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting today. While a "hold" is nearly certain, the market is bracing for the 2:00 PM ET statement and 2:30 PM ET press conference—Jerome Powell’s final meeting before his term ends in May.

•Hormuz Escalation & Brent $113 (WAFA/Morningstar): Oil prices have extended their gains for an eighth consecutive session. Brent surged toward $113 as the rejection of the latest peace proposal signals a prolonged closure of the Strait, with traffic still down 95%.

•FX Risk-Off Reversal (FxStreet/Capital Street): Markets that had priced in de-escalation reversed hard overnight. The USD is firming as risk-sensitive currencies like the Euro and Sterling retreat on energy exposure and Middle East tensions.

•China's African Tariff Shift (SMM): China announced zero tariffs on 20 African nations starting May 2026, a move seen as securing long-term resource supply lines amidst global energy instability.

•BOJ Follow-Through: Following Tuesday’s hawkish hold, USD/JPY has reclaimed the 159.80 handle, testing the 160.00 intervention ceiling as U.S. yields remain elevated at 4.37%.

Macro Context

•Rates: The yield curve remains in a "bear steepening" phase with the 10Y–2Y spread at +56 bps. Persistent energy inflation and stalled diplomacy are forcing markets to demand a higher premium for long-term debt.

•FX: EUR/USD is currently stagnant at 1.1691. The Eurozone's heavy exposure to the ongoing energy crisis continues to suppress growth expectations.

•Energy: WTI has breached the $101 mark. The "Tehran Tollbooth" strategy is now fully priced into the front-end of the curve.

•Equities: NAS100 is showing pre-market strength (+0.22%), but this is a high-stakes "Magnificent 7" bet rather than a broad market recovery.

Trade Implications:

USD/JPY

Bias: Bullish

Flow: Pressing toward the 160.00 ceiling where MoF intervention risk is extreme.

Support Zone: 159.20–159.50

Resistance Zone: 160.00–160.25

Execution: Buy dips but size down heavily above 160.

EUR/USD

Bias: Bearish

Flow: ECB fragility and energy exposure are driving a break below 1.1700.

Support Zone: 1.1650–1.1680

Resistance Zone: 1.1710–1.1730

Execution: Sell on rallies; the structure is heavily broken.

GBP/USD

Bias: Bearish

Flow: Sterling is grinding toward a critical pivot as USD strength persists.

Support Zone: 1.3440–1.3465

Resistance Zone: 1.3520–1.3540

Execution: Fading the minor relief bounces until the key support is tested.

QQQ

Bias: Volatile / Bullish (Pre-mkt)

Flow: Trading near 659. The market is betting on AI monetization to offset the energy drag.

Support Zone: 652–655

Resistance Zone: 666–669

Execution: High-stakes trading; stay liquid until after the "Big 4" report tonight.

XLE

Bias: Bullish

Flow: The natural haven as WTI holds above $100.

Support Zone: 56.50–56.80

Resistance Zone: 58.50–59.00

Execution: Hold core longs; the supply shock is the dominant structural theme.

What to Watch

CME FedWatch: Traders are pricing in a 99% probability that the Fed holds rates steady at 3.75% today. The market expects a neutral-to-hawkish tone, with the first potential cut not fully priced in until late 2026.

Magnificent 7 Earnings: Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Meta (META) all report after the bell today. This is the ultimate test for the NAS100: can AI-fueled cloud growth justify valuations in a high-interest-rate environment?

Market data compiled from Reuters, Bloomberg, and FXStreet.

Good Morning Traders. We have an action packed week still ahead. While we were sleeping the Bank of Japan had their interest rate meeting that, as expected didn't provide that much support for the yen. The BoJ tried to sound hawkish, but inflation is proving to be a hard nut to crack. Before the interest rate decision the yen was trading at about 159.50, and after the decision it only drops to the 159.20 level. This short move show just how sticky inflation has become over the last month or so. Other major banks meet for their respective interest rate decisions later this week. The ECB, BoE, and Fed are all set to meet this week, but most eyes are going to be on the Fed decision on Wednesday. Earnings season is still in full force in the US markets as well. Lots to watch this week. Good Luck out there and Happy Trading.

Market Snapshot:

Oil

WTI: 96.02 (+0.18%)

Brent: 107.51 (+0.21%)

Indexes

DXY: 98.835 (+0.04%)

US500: 7,122.5 (+0.16%)

US30: 49,152.0 (+0.01%)

NAS100: 27,040.5 (+0.22%)

VIX: 19.38 (+0.41%)

FX

USD/JPY: 159.23 (-0.32%)

EUR/USD: 1.1691 (+0.04%)

GBP/USD: 1.3486 (+0.04%)

USD/CAD: 1.3695 (+0.03%)

AUD/USD: 0.7135 (+0.05%)

ETFs

QQQ: 654.42 (-0.15% Pre-mkt)

SPY: 708.95 (+0.07% Pre-mkt)

XLE: 57.02 (+0.09% Pre-mkt)

Treasury Yields

2Y: 3.84%

10Y: 4.35%

10Y–2Y: +0.51%

Overnight Drivers

• FOMC Day 1 Deliberations (Reuters/Bloomberg): The Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day policy meeting today. While no announcement is due today, the market is bracing for tomorrow’s 2:00 PM ET decision. The focus is on whether the Fed will signal a shift in its 2026 outlook due to the "blockade-driven" energy inflation floor.

• Trump Rejects Tehran’s Proposal (Washington Post/Axios): President Trump has officially rejected a proposal from Iranian negotiators that sought to separate the Strait of Hormuz reopening from broader nuclear and peace talks. Trump has reportedly called off the Witkoff/Kushner trip to Pakistan, signaling that the U.S. will not accept "partial deals" while the Strait remains contested.

• BoJ "Hawkish Hold" (Morningstar/FXStreet): The Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.75% in a 6-3 vote. Despite the hold, the outlook report revised GDP lower while highlighting persistent inflationary risks from the Middle East conflict, sparking a relief bid in the Yen (USD/JPY down to 159.23).

• Equities Notch New Records (Kiplinger): Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new closing highs on Monday. However, futures are showing signs of exhaustion this morning as the 10-Year yield climbs to 4.35% ahead of a massive tech earnings wave starting tomorrow.

• Iranian Envoy Meets Putin (AP): Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi met with Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg on Monday, seeking Russian support as the U.S. blockade stiffens.

Macro Context

• Rates: The yield curve is bear steepening, with the 10Y reaching 4.35%. Markets are demanding a higher term premium as long as the Hormuz traffic remains at just 5% of its normal levels.

• FX: USD/JPY is the pair to watch. The BoJ's hawkish tilt provided a floor for the Yen overnight, but until energy prices cool, the fundamental pressure on JPY remains severe.

• Energy: Brent at $107.51 reflects the reality that diplomacy is currently stalled. The rejection of the latest proposal ensures the supply-side chokehold continues.

• Equities: We are seeing a "narrow advance" with tech leading the way, but breadth is weakening as consumer and financial sectors lag.

Trade Implications:

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